Transparency
How VerdiktumScore Works
We track public predictions made by financial influencers and score their accuracy using a transparent, algorithmic methodology. Here's exactly how we do it.
The Process
Public Prediction Recorded
We extract verbatim quotes from public YouTube videos, X posts, and podcasts — with source URL and publication date. Only specific, falsifiable predictions are tracked (e.g. "Bitcoin will hit $200k by 2025", not vague opinions).
Verdict Assigned
Once a prediction's deadline passes, we verify the outcome against independent public data sources. A verdict is one of: Correct, Partially correct, Incorrect, or Disputed. AI assists with research; each verdict includes a justification and confidence score.
VerdiktumScore Calculated
The score is a weighted composite (0–100) of three dimensions:
- 50% Prediction success rate — % of predictions that came true or partially true
- 30% Return quality — whether calls about financial instruments were directionally correct
- 20% Calibration — whether stated confidence matches actual accuracy (claiming 90% confidence when right 40% of the time is penalised)
Minimum 5 resolved predictions required. Statistical significance test (Z ≥ 1.64) required before the score is publicly displayed.
Tier Assigned
Based on the VerdiktumScore, each influencer receives a tier:
Exceptionally accurate, long track record
Strong accuracy, statistically significant
Above average, worth monitoring
Below average — exercise caution
Significantly below average track record
⚠️ Verified Creator status does not influence VerdiktumScore
Influencers can purchase a Verified Creator badge to signal transparency. This badge has zero effect on their VerdiktumScore. Scores are computed algorithmically from verified predictions only. Paying for a badge cannot improve or worsen a score.
Dispute a Verdict
If you believe a verdict is factually incorrect, submit your evidence below. We review all disputes within 7 business days and publish corrections when warranted. The goal is accuracy, not reputation management.