"Mi suposición es que en la segunda mitad de este año, especialmente a finales del tercer trimestre y principios del cuarto, verás que el mercado de valores muestra debilidad y eso podría hacer que la Fed cambie algunas de sus opiniones. Pero hasta que eso suceda, toda la industria está estancada porque mientras el comercio de la IA siga funcionando, no hay razón para recortar las tasas." "My guess is in the back half of this year especially kind of late Q3 early Q4 you'll see the stock market show weakness and that might get the Fed to pivot on some of their views. But until that happens, the entire industry is stuck because as long as the AI trade keeps working, there's no reason to cut rates."
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… ou have prolonged periods of higher interest rates and quantitative tightening, the frothier stuff is going to show weakness first, right? That's why altcoin showed weakness first and then Bitcoin is still further up the risk curve than a lot of other things and that's why it's starting it's been showing weakness for the last eight or nine months. My guess is in the back half of this year especially kind of late Q3 early Q4 you'll see the stock market show weakness and that might get the Fed to pivot on some of their views. But until that happens, the entire industry is stuck because as long as the AI trade keeps working, there's no reason to cut rates. There's no reason for any of that stuff. And as long as that happens, crypto continues to bleed out and and people leave because they recognize that, hey, for this stuff to do well, we need a lot looser monetary policy and we're just simply not getting that right now. So those are my views. This is the social risk. If you want to get access to it, …
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