"So, again, when we're looking at a distribution of the probabilities, I would say the most likely month for a low is October, but that doesn't mean you can't have a low in June, and that you can't have a low in January. It just means that at the current time, they're not the most likely outcomes."

"If you look at 2018, you can see it started in September. The S&P M2 factor would actually correspond to September. And you know, if that is the case, we know that Bitcoin, well we don't know, but I think Bitcoin might bottom in October. And so if the stock market were to top in September, then maybe Bitcoin would bottom out pretty quickly just because it would react to whatever the stock market's reacting to a lot quicker because it's just further up the risk curve. It would get hit a lot quicker than the stock market and potentially Bitcoin then finds that low sometime in the fourth quarter. Maybe as early as as October. "

"And then once you get to the summer especially kind of after the drop going into the summer that's when you start to you know, start to get interested in Bitcoin. Um So, think about the July, August, September time frame. Knowing that if you buy then, there still could be one last drop, right? Like there was one last drop in 2022, the FTX collapse we had in Q4. There was one last drop in 2018 that we that started in November. There's also one last drop in 2014 that actually bled into the very beginning of 2015. "

"So, we have now seen them cross. And you know, usually when they cross, the low's not immediately in like that's never happened before. I'm not saying it can't, but it's never happened before. Usually the month though, usually the low occurs within about one to three to like one to four months. Okay. So that could be anywhere between say like now and July, August, September, October, who knew, right? "

"My best guess is that Bitcoin sets a low in June and then has a counter trend rally and then has another low in October. I would argue that there is a high likelihood that the October low would be lower than the June low. "