Lark Davis on Economy — predictions scored

"They're going to cut the rates, guys. They're going to recalculate how inflation is done. They're going to stop paying attention to the job market at all. And they're going to cut the [ __ ] rates and they're going to pump it to an unbelievable degree over the next couple years until Trump's out of office. It'll be the greatest bull run of all time until it isn't. "

"SIMD553, the second one, proposes a base case burn of approximately 2,850 salana per day, roughly $200,000 in current prices, $73 million per year at a minimum. At a higher onchain activity level, the burn would actually scale significantly above that to the levels that if both pass, this introduces actual deflationary pressure to the supply equation for the first time in Salana's history, which takes away one of the biggest criticisms of Salana. "

"SIMD547 the third one adds another layer activity based burns via resource pricing meaning that high demand periods generate automatic supply reduction usage drives deflation. The more salana gets used the more supply gets removed from circulation. This is a major overhaul in tokconomics and if all these SIMDs get passed huge implications. It's an elegant mechanism. "

"A massive financial storm could be brewing. We're staring down over 1.3 trillion dollars in toxic consumer credit debt mixed with brutal corporate refinancing where companies have to renew loans at massive interest rates. "

"Wall Street is repeating history and almost nobody's prepared for the incoming crash. The S&P 500 is officially surged right back to the dangerous dot-com bubble levels. The legendary Shiller PE ratio, the ultimate metric for cyclically adjusted corporate earnings, is now sitting just 3% away from its absolute peak in history. To put that in perspective, stock valuations are currently 2.5 times higher than the historical average going back to the 1880s. We aren't just in a bull market, we are in very dangerous territory. The last time the data looked exactly like this, the market wiped out a generation of wealth. "

"Semiconductors are currently trading 73% above their 200 day moving average. That's the largest stretch since March 2000. Now, if you know your market history, that sentence should make you uncomfortable. Micro, Palunteer, all of it. They're all showing the potential for climax coming soon. This is what a blowoff top kind of looks like in real time. "

"Scenario three, this is where things get interesting. This is the 30% CAGR scenario. This is the sailor's scenario, hyper monetization, global reserve asset, institutional treasury standard. By 2040, Bitcoin reaches $2.75 million per coin, a 39x return. "

"Bloomberg Intelligence, they estimate that S&P 500 funds will be forced to absorb 19% of SpaceX float within 6 months. Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 funds will absorb another whopping 24%. So, look, if you own an index fund, and most Americans do, you're about to own SpaceX whether you want to or not. "

"Insiders currently own 95% of all shares. The public float's just 5%. Those insiders are sitting on that they cannot sell into the open market. Most IPOs lock insiders up for 180 days. SpaceX, 60 days. 60 days after listing, 20% of eligible insider shares can unlock. That's a lot of money. If the stock rises 30% above IPO price, then another 10% unlocks. Then five separate unlocks hit between 70 days and 135 days. By November of this year, 93% of early release insider shares could already be free to sell. "

"Target on Bitcoin is $80,000. Target on ETH is $2,100. "

"What you don't want to see are some big fat daily candles get confirmed underneath this channel because that means we're probably then going to $62,000 which is the technical target of the breakdown of the channel. "

"Target on Bitcoin is $80,000. Target on ETH is $2,100. "

"If we can see a resolution to the Iran situation, that brings inflation back down super quick. Within 3 to 4 months, you'll see inflation back to pre-Iran war levels. "

"He's going to bring in a new way of how they measure inflation, which will give him the ammunition to lower rates. The plan's already there. They just need to start implementing it over the next few months and that's exactly what they're going to do. You hear me now, quote me later. "

"The trade in my mind, what I'm implementing on and have put money behind, is that we bounce from here. So, stop loss just down here. Bounce to the top of the channel to around 69k, that's where the take profit target is updated too. "

"Price target on both those is $119. Get to 119, we're moving out of that trade, taking the money, and running for the hills. That's the plan anyway. "

"They're going to change how they measure inflation. They're going to do a lot of stuff in the background. They're going to stop caring about jobs reports. They're going to focus just on inflation as the only metric, but they're going to manipulate the numbers in the background so that Trump can pump this bad boy up. "

"Anyway, currently at the bottom of this bearish channel, a bounce and move to the top will be a 69k move. I've added a slight amount to my Bitcoin long, which I'm still in, by the way. "

"CryptoQuant whales complete selling and trigger a 65.7k BTC price rebound. Whales fly U-turn. Whales have locked in [153s] the $60,000 to $61,500 range as a rock-solid floor with exchange reserves depleted. The path of least resistance for Bitcoin is now firmly upward. "

"SIMD550 proposes roughly doubling the disinflation rate which would cut over a billion dollars in annual emissions from Salana. Right now Salana inflates at around 4% a year with no burn mechanism. So very minimal burn mechanism. The market has been pricing in that inflation as a structural headwind. SIMD550 addresses it directly. "

"ETH is the reserve collateral of the most neutral financial settlement network on Earth. The people who own it are accumulating and locking it up at record rates while the price is weak and sentiment is at a multi-year low. "

"If the price breaks here around 61.5, then we're heading down to around 56K approximately. "

"2026 might be smooth sailing, but 2027 is looking like a financial shipwreck unless something changes soon. "

"Bitcoin bottomed 11 months after the monthly MACD confirmed a bearish crossover. We're now seven months into the current one. If history repeats, the bottom could land around October this year, aligning with a four-year cycle, right before the next big run. "

"The credit market is still in a dangerous zone. So, the big guys like Blue Owl and uh Blackstone, they all have gated redemptions on their evergreen private credit funds within the last few months. When the biggest names on private credit start freezing withdrawals simultaneously, it means something is breaking beneath the surface that the headlines haven't caught up yet to or simply don't want to admit. "

"Trillions of dollars of IPOs and lockup supply will be hitting the markets in 2026. That's an enormous amount of money that needs to be absorbed by a market already kind of running on fumes from retail FOMO. Everybody's all in all the time. "

"We are right now experiencing the largest equity supply shock since 2000. SpaceX OpenAI Anthropic Anderil Datab Bricks, all these big IPOs are coming. We know SpaceX is coming in about two weeks. Anthropic is filed for an IPO, so they're coming relatively soon. Combine just the top three, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are worth around $5 trillion. Where does the money come from? "

"This new upgrade could instantly skyrocket that burn rate to anywhere between 10,000 and 64,000 SOL every single day. That means Solana could effectively neutralize its entire daily inflation schedule. "

"40 trillion is not going to flow in, but a few hundred billion might. ETF inflows have created real structural demand that didn't exist in prior cycles. "

"That bill exists, it's called the Clarity Act. It just passed the Senate Banking Committee a few weeks ago, and if it becomes law, which could happen within weeks, it will be the single most consequential moment in the history of crypto and could be the catalyst that we actually need for crypto to stop sucking balls and to get back into the race with equities. "

"Scenario number two, a 20% CAGR. This is the respectable uninspiring scenario where for me it would probably still make sense to check out to be honest. By 2040, Bitcoin hits roughly $900,000 per coin. "

"Scenario one, 10% CAGR. This is the gold scenario. Gold's got a 10% CAGR. So, Bitcoin matures into some kind of store value asset with slow steady appreciation. By 2040, you were looking at roughly a $265,000 per coin Bitcoin. "

"But there's a fourth scenario I'll throw in here, the dream case, a 55% CAGR. That's what Bitcoin has historically done. And that gets Bitcoin to a million dollars by 2032, 6 years from now. "

"I bought some more Copex COPX. That's copper ETF, long-term play. I bought some more Coreweave. I bought some Marathon Digital. Bought some more CleanSpark. These are all, you know, data center plays because, uh, energy is going to be one of the big things here for this whole AI revolution. And these data center plays, I think, are really big. The Neoclouds are really big. "

"And crypto, while in 2026, has been a pretty damn bad trade, that will not last forever. The money will rotate back around, and then everyone will seem like geniuses again. But the real geniuses are the ones who are accumulating before the crowd shows back up. "

"If Bitcoin breaks up in a similar fashion, we can see 300k plus by the end of next year. "

"As long as we stay above that orange line, cool, man. Start dropping below it, well, that becomes much more problematic and then you have the reality that you have to look that a technical breakdown of the channel has a $10,000 minus price target. So, that would take you down to about $62,000. "

"If we break under $77, a short activates and it probably gets real messy. Real messy real quick. "

"If you're in crypto right now, your portfolio is red. Every week seems like it's going to get better, but it just gets worse. Congratulations, you're at the last phase of the bear market, and you're about to make life-changing money in the next few months. Stay, don't quit. "

"I might even put in a long here on ETH just contrarianly with a stop loss down here around two grand because if you get a weekly close under two under this trend line, it's probably over for a while for ETH and it probably has to have even more pain suffered. "