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Igor Janke on Economy — predictions scored

Igor Janke on Economy — predictions scored

155 tracked claims · Accuracy: 81%

Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.05.2026
True
"In the face of the energy crisis, the Russians felt so confident that at the end of April 2026, they announced to Germany that from May 1, they would halt supplies of Kazakh oil to the German Schwedt refinery. This refinery, located right on the border with Poland, supplies fuels to, for example, Berlin, and Kazakh oil flowing through the Druzhba pipeline through Polish territory accounts for 20% of its crude processing. This communication to the Germans is, of course, a message aimed at deepening the fuel crisis in which Europe finds itself. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 29.05.2026
! Misleading
"We are a country that simultaneously spends 5% on defense, and on research and development and science spends one of the smallest percentages in the entire European Union. It spends 1%, while the European Union average is 2%. And we have some of the worst universities on the continent. Actually, the University of Warsaw and Krakow, meaning Jagiellonian, are somewhere in those world rankings. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 27.05.2026
? Unverifiable
"In contrast to the aforementioned countries, 15 other states, including Poland, found themselves. This bloc demands higher expenditures than those contained in the European Commission's proposal to increase the budget to two trillion euros. Net contributors to the EU budget believe that the European Union cannot currently afford to allocate additional funds. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 26.05.2026
Pending
"If these ninety billion long-promised are not there, if the Verkhovna Rada does not adopt these very unpopular tax changes demanded by the International Monetary Fund to activate several billion dollars of this injection into the budget, then this situation may dramatically change by mid-year. There will be no money for payments. "
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⚠️ Warning Economy 2026
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
True
"The German automotive industry association VDA warned that by 2035 there will be huge layoffs in car factories in Germany. [...] By 2035, 225,000 jobs will be eliminated in Germany, which is 35,000 more than previously estimated, warns the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA). OPEC+ decided to increase oil production limits. Seven countries from the OPEC+ group will raise their oil production targets in July 2026. Iraq and the United Arab Emirates are accelerating investments [in alternative oil routes]. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 13.05.2026
Occurred
"For example, the de facto liquidation of the legal crypto market in Poland. possible outflow of tech companies abroad, potential conflict with EU regulation, which assumes market regulation, not its ban. And the strengthening of UOKiK and ABW competencies in financial and internet blockades, meaning we are also entering the scope of some blocking of internet freedom. "
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⚠️ Warning Economy 2026
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.05.2026
True
"Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe plummeted by 44% in 2025, reaching their lowest level since the mid-1970s. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.05.2026
True
"On this palette of Russian gas pipeline connections, only one operational pipeline remains. TurkStream, which is still working and supplies Russian gas to countries like Hungary. Of course, the Russians are still supplying Europe with gas via LNG, but if we look at the entire portfolio of blue fuel supplies to the old continent, we see that Russia has been marginalized to the role of a subordinate supplier, and its place has been taken by the United States, Norway, and also African countries. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.05.2026
True
"In 2026, the Russian energy sector entered with tears in its eyes. Unfortunately, this did not last long, because already at the beginning of March, the whole situation changed by 180 degrees. The crisis related to the war in Iran began to sharply raise the prices of basic energy carriers, both raw materials and fuels. And this in itself was a certain salvation for Russia, which could sell the raw materials it exported at higher prices. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.05.2026
Pending
"In 2025, Russians sent and sold half less gas to all external markets than they sold only to the European Union in 2019. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.05.2026
True
"For Russians, 2025 will also be exceptional in this respect. Because if we look at what was happening then, we see that we can speak of a true oil pandemonium here. First of all, in 2025, sanctions hit the Russians. Those imposed by President Joe Biden, who was emptying the office in that very year. Then those introduced by President Donald Trump in October 2025, as well as subsequent packages of sanctions imposed by the European Union, including restrictions concerning recipients of Russian oil in China or India. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.05.2026
True
"The most serious energy shock resulting from the situation in the Middle East is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is a major energy highway running from Arab countries to the rest of Asia. This is precisely that part of the continent, Southeast Asia. Economies such as China, India, and other countries in the region are the largest recipients of both raw materials and fuels that are transported through Hormuz. And these raw materials and fuels quickly started to run out. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.05.2026
True
"In 2025, most of Russia's export capabilities to its recently key client, Europe, were non-functional. That means, of the main pipelines running to the old continent from Russia, only one was already working. Let's look at the map of Europe now and list these connections one by one. Let's start from the north. There, at the bottom of the Baltic Sea, lie the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines. Since 2022, they have not been working. They remained 75% blown up, meaning that out of the four lines of pipelines that make up Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, three were destroyed, damaged as a result of a sabotage attack that occurred in September 2022. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 07.05.2026
True
"Poland's power industry is still very centralized. This is the result of an increasingly archaic model it is based on. This is perfectly visible in the example of coal-fired power plants. Just three power plants: Bełchatów, Kozienice, and Opole, account for almost half of Poland's coal capacity. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 07.05.2026
! Misleading
"These units have a capacity of about 12 GW. Meanwhile, Poland's power demand is usually slightly over 20 GW. This means that these three power plants are able to cover half of our standard demand. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 07.05.2026
Pending
"If war occurs, if there is even a threat that leads to the introduction of martial law, one should expect that restrictions on cash withdrawals, withdrawals from ATMs, and withdrawals from bank branches will be introduced. For this eventuality, one needs to have cash prepared, and probably cash for three days will not be enough. "
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⚠️ Warning Economy 2026
Igor Janke Igor Janke 06.05.2026
True
"Inflation caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is leading people to pay almost 40 to 50% more for car fuel at the moment. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 05.05.2026
Pending
"This year, this amount of support will reach at least 5.5 billion PLN. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 05.05.2026
True
"The net financial result of the hard coal mining sector in 2025 amounted to PLN -8.376 billion compared to PLN -13.742 billion in 2024 – reported ARP, which analyzes the coal market. The net financial result of the hard coal mining sector in the first quarter of 2026 amounted to minus PLN 1.75 billion — reported the Industrial Development Agency. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 05.05.2026
Pending
"Only in 2025, some Polish state-owned hard coal mines received from us, i.e., from taxpayers through the state budget, as much as 9 billion zlotys. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 28.04.2026
True
"Last year, global defense spending increased to almost $3 trillion. The increase occurred despite a reduction in US defense spending. In 2025, compared to the previous year, countries worldwide spent 2.9% more on defense. This means that a total of 2 million 900 billion dollars was spent on military potential last year. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 25.03.2026
! Misleading
"As part of the agreement, the community will open up to agricultural products from Australia. Annually, Australian producers will be able to export over 30,000 metric tons of beef to Europe. Australia, for its part, declared protection for the names of 165 European food products and 237 spirit drinks. Additionally, the European Union will have easier access to investments in natural resource extraction in Australia. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 19.03.2026
True
"“We consider a thorough review of ETS aimed at mitigating its impact on electricity prices and at reducing the risk of volatility of carbon pricing including an extension of the free EU allowances under ETS 1 beyond 2034 to be necessary.” "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 17.03.2026
True
"The total value of US-European trade last year was approximately one trillion 50 billion dollars. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 17.03.2026
True
"Tariffs imposed on imported European products by American President Donald Trump did not significantly change deficits in transatlantic economic relations. The USA sold goods worth approximately 414 billion dollars to the European Union. European products valued at approximately 633 billion dollars, in turn, went to America. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 12.03.2026
True
"The International Energy Agency will introduce nearly 400 million barrels of crude oil to the oil market. Fuel reserves are intended to stabilize the situation resulting from the war in the Middle East. In its recommendations, the institution stated that the release of strategic oil reserves would take place within the next two months. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 02.06.2026
Pending
"In 1924, perhaps every second new car sold in Russia was a Chinese car. I remember it myself from Petersburg, because I lived there then, when in 1922 the war, Russian aggression against Ukraine, began and indeed, within a few months, Chinese cars started appearing more and more often. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 02.06.2026
True
"Interesting things are also happening in what is now, for example, since mid-January China stopped buying electricity from Russia, because it became more expensive than internal Chinese prices, and in turn, the Russians began to protect their automotive market from the influx of Chinese cars. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 02.06.2026
! Misleading
"I looked at the trade data for last year and there is quite a significant several percent drop in the value of trade. Not in terms of volumes, because Russia still sells roughly the same amount of gas, oil, and China roughly the same amount of electronic equipment, machinery, but the value due to changes in global energy commodity prices, the value of this trade is falling and it is clear that in this trade structure, not much more will be produced there. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 02.06.2026
True
"“China-Russia trade fell for the first time in five years in 2025, with passenger vehicle exports dropping 42% to 632,300 units, according to Chinese customs data cited by TASS.” "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 30.05.2026
True
"The National Centre for Research and Development awarded Perła-Browary Lubelskie S.A. over 38 million PLN for the development of a beer with reduced alcohol and sugar content. The product was launched in 2026 as Perła Fit. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 29.05.2026
Pending
"this 1% of expenditure, 1% of GDP on science, it is less, not only is it very little, it is even less than Poland spent, because Poland spent probably one and a half percent ten years ago. Well, that's half as much. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 27.05.2026
True
"It amounted to nearly 87 billion euros last year. Despite this, Berlin hopes for a fruitful dialogue with Beijing, as it is currently its largest trading partner. The main goal of the Merc government is to maintain contacts with the authorities of the Middle Kingdom and to open the Chinese market more widely to German products. Currently, about 5200 German companies operate in the People's Republic of China. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 27.05.2026
True
"Countries belonging to the so-called Friends of Cohesion group claim that increasing spending on the common agricultural policy and common fisheries policy means acting towards creating a more competitive and safer Europe. Additionally, they want the abolition of the rebate for Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands, Germany, and Sweden, i.e., countries currently having reduced contributions to the EU budget. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 27.05.2026
True
"This is one side of the coin, and the other is that we have a record deficit in the treatment budget, but at the same time a record NFZ budget of 221 billion PLN. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 27.05.2026
! Misleading
"Poland, along with 15 other European Union members, also opposes increasing the crisis reserve. Financial resources, in their opinion, should primarily finance long-term EU infrastructure projects. EU policy towards the People's Republic of China. Berlin, despite a high trade deficit in trade relations, seeks to strengthen economic cooperation with Beijing. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 27.05.2026
! Misleading
"Germany did not support the appeal because it is trying to develop its economic cooperation with the People's Republic of China. In March, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called on the European Union to conclude an agreement with China, and German Minister Katrina Reich, along with a group of 40 entrepreneurs, will be in Beijing until Friday. The head of the German trade ministry will discuss the persistent trade deficit between the two countries with Chinese authorities. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 26.05.2026
True
"Control Process S.A. did not receive funds for work performed after the Ukrainian company Zielone Miasto terminated the contract without any basis. In this way, Polish enterprises are being pushed out of the Ukrainian market. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 24.05.2026
True
"40% of Israel's oil currently comes from Azerbaijan. An additional 30% comes from Kazakhstan and is managed by Azerbaijan, through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy
Igor Janke Igor Janke 22.05.2026
True
"The Community also expects Ukraine to meet its further requirements. The payment of 9 billion euros, part of a total 90 billion euro EU loan for Ukraine, is to be made conditional on its tax reform. This is to consist of improving tax collection and introducing mechanisms for more efficient spending of money. "
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✅ Factual claim Economy