Comparic Rynki on Economy — predictions scored
142 tracked claims · Accuracy: 56%
"In the Dutch system after 2028, the same start, the same 7%, but every year the tax office cuts 36% of the profit. This cuts real growth from 7% to about 4.5%. Sounds innocent, right? After a decade you lose over 17% of your final capital. After 20 years almost 30%. After 40 almost 57. Instead of 1.5 million you have about 646,000. Euro. The state erases over 850,000 EUR of potential wealth from your account. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2028
"If you heat with coal, the amounts are higher. 10311 PLN in the period 2028-2030. And pay attention, 3974 PLN until 2035. I repeat, because it's a brutal number. A family heating with coal will have almost 40,000 PLN taken from their wallet in 7 years. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2035
"Smartphones, laptops, consoles, TVs, home appliances will go up by 10-20, in some places 30%. Stock levels of Polish networks will be sufficient until the end of the first half of the year. Real increase: end of July, August, autumn. The cheapest models will suffer the most. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"If you have a business that requires selling a physical product to the States, Bahrain is a great idea. But from my side, the information is simple. When the war is over. And 'after the war' does not mean some message from an Iranian army colonel again, it does not mean a message from Trump. For me, the phrase 'after the war' means when I open marine traffic, which is a map that shows ship movements. I only select the red color, meaning only tankers, ga "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"If China lifts the suspension of the ban in November 2026, RTX may have a serious problem fulfilling contracts worth over $20 billion that it has in its order book. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"if in January 2028 you wake up in the morning, refuel your car and turn on your gas heater, you will pay more. without declaration, without office, without choice, simply built into the price. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"In the base scenario, petrol prices increase by 29 groszy per liter, diesel by 35 groszy. In the pessimistic scenario, based on real Bloomberg forecasts, the amounts rise to 46 groszy and 50 groszy respectively. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
Medium timeframe
"Let's consider a family commuting daily. 60 km a day. They consume about 1200 liters of fuel annually. We add ETS2 and it comes out to 400 zlotys more just for the tax itself. Plus an increase in prices of all goods, because professional transport will also obviously have to pay, because trucks will pay, because the entire supply chain pays, and then all of that lands in the price of bread, milk, shoes. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2028
"Bloomberg calculated that in the years 2027-2035, the EU ETS2 system will generate revenues of approximately 644 billion euros. The entire Social Climate Fund (SFK) is 65 billion euros, meaning SFK is slightly over 10% of what ETS2 will take from citizens' wallets. "
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PL · original
✅ Factual claim
Economy
"In an extreme scenario, ETS2 can push inflation up by as much as two percentage points. This is not an abstraction, it is a real loss of purchasing power for everyone. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"a typical Polish family can lose up to PLN 40,000 in 7 years. without a separate item in PIT, without a referendum, without a choice. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2033
"The Centre for Climate and Energy Analysis went further. It assumes that after the merger of ETS1 and ETS2 systems, the price may reach €180 per tonne in 2040. "
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PL · original
💰 Price target
Economy
2040
"The average Polish family heating their home with gas will additionally lose 6338 PLN in the years 2028-2030. By 2035, this will already be 2418 PLN. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2035
"Poland will spend nearly 200 billion zlotys on defense in 2026. This is over 4% of GDP. And it will be the second-highest indicator in all of NATO, right after the United States. "
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PL · original
✅ Factual claim
Economy
"Interest next year will consume not 115 but 130, 140 billion zlotys. There will be nothing left to pay for benefits, defense, or investments without deep changes. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"In 2027, something must break. Either consolidation forced by Brussels, or a series of quiet tax increases, or an increase in debt servicing costs that will consume the rest of the government's economic policy. Most likely a bit of everything. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2027
"The European Commission must see this in its models, which is why it forecasts a deficit of over 6% for next year instead of lowering it. Because in Brussels they understand what the Polish government communicatively does not want to say. Revenues will not catch up with our expenses at all. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2027
"64.5%. This will be our public debt to GDP in 2026. The treaty threshold is 60%. And we are exceeding it this year for the first time. According to European Commission forecasts, in 2027 the debt will reach over 68%. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Kaped wins in the second round. Continuation of Petro's policies, continuation of conflict with the central bank, continuation of sanctions. The PESO weakens towards 4200-4500 per dollar in a few months. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Walensja wins. Center-right correction. Attempt to rebuild relations with Washington. Fiscal plan to be agreed with Congress. PESO may strengthen below 3500, and the Colcup index returns to an upward trend. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"De la Spa wins. Salvadoran-style shock. Short-term strengthening of the PESO on a wave of right-wing investor enthusiasm and immediate risk of collision with the Supreme Court, Constitutional Tribunal, and Congress, i.e., political risk premium going up after the first attempts at extradition decrees. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"If an agreement between Iran and the United States is already concluded, the price of oil will drop from nearly $100 to $70-$80, because I think it won't go much below $70, as it will take time before production capacities in the Persian Gulf are reactivated and everything settles down again. And if oil cheapens, in other words, if oil significantly cheapens, say by 20%, what will happen to yields? They will undoubtedly fall. But how much will they fall? Will they not start rising again afterwards? Will the fear currently caused by debt, oil, and inflation not persist? I don't know, because I see many texts that say that not only oil matters here, because that's the truth, not only oil matters here, that generally elevated inflation may stay with us for a longer time. I'm not sure that will be the case. I simply don't know. And I'm waiting for the moment when we have a test. A test, meaning an oil price 20% lower, yields sharply falling, and what will happen then? Because the first move will be what Americans call a knee-jerk reaction, right, that the first move will be such a sharp drop in oil price, a sharp... "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"German economic growth in 2026 is half a percent, and Poland, according to forecasts, even 3.8%. This means that we are growing 6 to seven times faster than Europe's largest economy. "
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PL · original
✅ Factual claim
Economy
"The next key date is June 15 and 16, 2026. Bank of Japan meeting. If the BOJ raises the rate to a round 1% and markets price this with a probability of over 63%, a second wave will be triggered. Then we will see how much the Polish 10-year bond is really worth. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"First short-term scenario. Trump and Xi agree on Iran. Beijing pressures Tehran. Iran yields on Hormuz. Tankers move. Brent falls to around $80, maybe lower. What does this mean in practice for Poland? Inflation loses momentum. Fuel at stations gets cheaper by several dozen groszy. Electricity bills stop being so scary, at least a bit. The National Bank of Poland gets an argument to maintain interest rates or even to cut them slightly. The zloty strengthens, WIG 20 catches its breath. General relief. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"It is not a question of whether Poland will enter the same scenario as Germany. Unfortunately, it is a question of when it will enter, whether in 2027 or 2028. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2027
"Home appliances (washing machine, refrigerator, dryer), because it's not just a chip. It's also a kilo of plastic in the casing, a kilo of rubber in the seals, a kilo of aluminum in the drum. Everything three times more expensive. Itoro experts in Polish financial media are already saying directly: Smartphones, laptops, consoles, refrigerators, washing machines, everything will get more expensive in the coming months. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"ASUS announced price increases for new computers by 25 to 30%. McQuery, an Australian investment bank, forecasts consumer electronics price increases of 10 to 20% in 2026. Numura more conservatively forecasts 5%. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"The global smartphone shipment forecast for 2026 will drop by 2%, and the average valuation will increase by almost 7%. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Prawdopodobnie trzy rzeczy. Pierwsza, ceny skupu drobiu i wołowiny w Polsce. Jeśli spadają szybciej niż średnia unijna to znaczy, że importowy ścisk już działa. Druga. Statystyki celne za maj i czerwiec. jak szybko Brazylia i Argentyna wyklepią ten kontyngent. Jeśli w trzy miesiące, to znaczy, że przewidywania były ostrożne. A trzecia, czy rząd w końcu złoży tę skargę, to powie najwięcej o tym, jak poważnie traktujemy własne uchwały sejmowe. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Food and meat processing companies from the Polish market are entering a long period of margin pressure. On the other hand, German car manufacturers and their Polish supply chain have new fuel. Who earns what will be visible after the reports for the second and third quarters of 2026. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"The first option is a put on the Invesco QQ Trust ETF with an exercise in January 2027 with a strike, i.e., a target of $550. The second. Further puts on QQQ this time from March 2027 with a strike of 525. The third puts on Nvidia from January 2027 Strike 115 and the fourth. Puts on the Isare Semiconductor SOX ETF. also January 2027 Strike 330, meaning it bets on declines in companies that produce or have a lot to do with semiconductors. "
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PL · original
💰 Price target
Economy
2027
"In short, no cuts this year. The Monetary Policy Council has its hands tied. Council members say this directly. In conditions of rising oil prices, we will not only not cut, but we may even raise. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"The third option, which markets are already pricing in, is a controlled devaluation with half-open eyes. That is, the loss of money value, pretending everything is under control, verbal interventions, selling foreign exchange reserves. Exactly as Great Britain did in 1992 before George Soros' famous attack on the pound. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio in January 2026 called Japan exactly such a demonstrative case of what happens to every country that allows debt to grow above its service capacity. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
Short timeframe
"Annually, Japan could become insolvent at 2% rates. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"And the second option is to return to bond buying and continue printing yen. It saves bonds but kills the currency. The yen is already at 160, and at 200 we have a scenario where imported inflation devours the remnants of real wages. Senior poverty increases geometrically. Another Akio in rice shops. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Analysts estimate that if Vero captures at least 20% of European transactions by 2030, it will push 1.5 trillion euro annually out of US payment pipelines. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Optimistic scenario. Trump makes a deal with Iran. Ormus returns to normal. Jet fuel drops to $120 per barrel in summer. Bydgoszcz regains Frankfurt in the fourth quarter, and the pessimistic scenario: war escalates, Russia continues to scheme. European reserves fall below 23 days. physical shortages at airports, rationing, ban on short-haul flights, and with this scenario, a full recession in the aviation industry. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"And the third BigTech is getting hit blow after blow in the European Union. Apple, Samsung, Google, battery regulations are just the beginning. The erosion of margins in the European market will be counted in billions, but it will not topple these companies. Rather, it will shift valuations down by a few percent over the next two quarters. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"The direction of the flow of people, work, and capital between Poland and Germany is slowly starting to reverse, point-by-point. First in asparagus fields, then in care, then in construction, and in a few years perhaps in office jobs, in IT in medical specializations, because once a trend starts, it rarely stops at one industry. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
Long timeframe