Albert Rokicki on Armed conflicts — predictions scored
6 tracked claims · Accuracy: 20%
Albert Rokicki
24.03.2026
"I think that if the war continues, if these negotiations do not end successfully this week, and the war continues until the end of April and there are some further escalations related to these military actions. We will witness further bombardments of critical infrastructure. Both in the Gulf countries, maybe in Israel, in Iran, above all, it is also said that there may be a problem with helium supplies from Qatar. This is one of the largest producers. It affects the production of optical fibers and semiconductors, so Iran knows where to attack strategically. Well, I think that if the war continues, I wouldn't even be surprised by levels of 50 PLN. 50, maybe even towards ATH in some panic, but this is a very, very good performance. This course is definitely on fire. "
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Armed conflicts
Albert Rokicki
11.03.2026
"Of course, if this conflict, according to my baseline scenario, the war in the Middle East is ended, however, within a month, let's say, two at most, right? Then oil should collapse, because Iranian oil will return, there is oversupply, and there are still those reserves that the United States has, so I would be calm here, right? "
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Armed conflicts
Albert Rokicki
03.03.2026
"I believe this war will end soon. I am from such an optimist camp. Well, let's be honest, Iran does not have the ability to continue or will surrender, and this regime will want to cooperate, even tactically, diplomatically end the war, claiming it wants to get rid of its further nuclear program, continuation of the nuclear program. Something like that. Or it will be totally annihilated, right? And here these ballistic capabilities or Trump will simply withdraw. If he sees that oil has actually exceeded $80, he will withdraw under some pretext, stating that the goals have been achieved, and the old song, the so-called taco. Well, it is known that he promised cheap fuel in the United States. He might be afraid, right, that these rising commodity prices could break the consumer and lead America into recession, because oil shocks practically have 100% effectiveness. If oil rose well above $100, $110, $120, I would be convinced that America would enter some mild recession. Mild, but still, right? And the American stock market in a bear market, meaning a drop of at least 20%. "
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🔮 Forecast
Armed conflicts
2026
Albert Rokicki
31.03.2026
"And besides, at any moment, coking coal can return to favor. Because rearmament, right, a lot of steel is needed, infrastructure and so on, space conquest, but mainly rearmament. Even if there were peace in the Middle East, all these countries are already so scared that they will rearm in case such attacks return. Right, that this will not stop in my opinion. "
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🔮 Forecast
Armed conflicts
Long timeframe
Albert Rokicki
03.03.2026
"I believe it will be short-lived. However, short-lived, and I am from the camp that expects it to last a maximum of one more week. At most, either Trump will withdraw, or the new Ayatollahs. There is a trio there now, which is an emergency. It is supposed to choose the new one. I think they will also delay this choice. Honestly, I wouldn't want to be chosen as the new Ayatollah, because that would be a certain year of death, or if there is a choice, it will mean that he wants to negotiate. That's what I think. "
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🔮 Forecast
Armed conflicts
2026
Albert Rokicki
14.04.2026
"Lubawa. No, not that one, I don't know the company. It's a war company, since peace is looming, and honestly, both in the Middle East and in Ukraine. It seems to me that by the end of this year there might be some truce or ceasefire at least in Ukraine as well. It seems to me that this summer offensive, Putin, in my opinion, wants to give himself one last chance with his generals and see if they can achieve anything in the summer, right? But I believe it will end in a fiasco, that now the strategic initiative and psychological advantage, in my opinion, are being taken by the Ukrainians. They have already taken it. Russians have achieved nothing in recent months. They have completely stopped, or even Ukraine's gains are minimal, but that would also need to be verified. It seems to me that such information flashed before my eyes, but honestly, I don't follow the situation on the front in Ukraine at all. I don't know if you agree with me, but this war in the Middle East, so to speak, stole the show a bit cynically from Ukraine, and honestly, I'm not very well oriented on what's happening on the front, but I know there is positive information, yes... "
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🔮 Forecast
Armed conflicts
2026