Albert Rokicki on Politics — predictions scored
9 tracked claims · Accuracy: 29%
Albert Rokicki
16.05.2026
"As for American real estate, it doesn't mean I'm predicting a crash here, but it would also be difficult for these properties to grow. There are increasingly bold ideas, especially from the Democratic Party in the United States, which will most likely take power already in the November elections. For example, the mayor of New York, who is a Democrat, has already introduced a tax on properties, on a second apartment of someone who does not permanently live in New York. "
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🔮 Forecast
Politics
2026
Albert Rokicki
30.04.2026
"He's not messing around here before the elections. I think they will hit Meta hard. It will be a show-off and it will be about 12 billion, because last year they had 200 billion in revenue, it seems. So 12, that will be 12 billion of 60 profit. So 20% of annual profit. Meta is not walking away. This is just one, one court case. There are still many such individual ones, you know. "
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🔮 Forecast
Politics
2026
Albert Rokicki
22.04.2026
"And then from November, in my baseline scenario, a return to strong growth. It will already be known who won. Most likely the Democrats, only the question is whether they will only take over the House of Representatives, which is almost certain and is fully priced in, because there is an 85% chance of that on Polymarket, or whether they will also take over the Senate. There is 52% right now on Polymarket, on such a forbidden betting platform in Poland, where you can place bets with real money. "
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🌐 Scenario
Politics
Albert Rokicki
24.03.2026
"Because my baseline scenario assumes that Trump will withdraw. Yes, I even thought he would do it earlier, but this week is definitely even a baseline scenario, that this week, let's be honest, I give over 50% that this week he will end his position, that he will end it somehow, I don't know how, but let's say 55% that this week, 45% that he will continue it until the end of April, but 55% is quite a lot, right? "
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🔮 Forecast
Politics
2026
Albert Rokicki
14.04.2026
"I think that when this Middle East conflict ends, Trump will return to the topic of Ukraine. It seems to me that he will even want to compensate, redeem himself a little, and will push for peace in Ukraine to gain voter support before the November midterm elections. I think there will be a push from Republicans to achieve this, to compensate a bit. "
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🔮 Forecast
Politics
2026
Albert Rokicki
11.04.2026
"And here, this is one of those unfavorable factors that have contributed to this worse financial situation, but one can also play on the fact that there will be a new president of the United States who will completely eliminate these tariffs or significantly reduce them. So there are several pro-growth factors here. "
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🌐 Scenario
Politics
Albert Rokicki
11.04.2026
"Here, paradoxically, it may help German manufacturers to postpone this deadline of 2035, where a ban on the sale of new combustion engine cars would be introduced. I believe that the Union is already loosening its policy here, and it's a matter of time before they extend it to 2050, because Trump has, as it were, thrown the table, and a little bit everything is changing. "
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🔮 Forecast
Politics
2050
Albert Rokicki
07.04.2026
"over a trillion dollars are allocated for armaments. yyy the Pentagon budget shamelessly requested an additional 200 billion dollars, which it will likely not get from Congress yyy and there is no money for citizens' health insurance. "
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✅ Factual claim
Politics
Albert Rokicki
05.02.2026
"Danes are extremely angry about this suspension with Greenland. They will definitely want a data wok, not a stake. Yes, also very good prospects in my opinion. "
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🔮 Forecast
Politics
Medium timeframe