"My guess as what's going to happen is Bitcoin will find a low in June, rally in July, and then people are going to be saying, well, it doesn't need to go for a full year because we didn't have a euphoric rally. That that is kind of what I see being the bix, the the next big debate. The problem is that when it happened in 2020, it was price-based capitulation. So, I would be in that camp if Bitcoin had price-based capitulation. If all the on-chain indicators reset, then I don't think it would make sense to stay bearish into Q4."

"And then once you get to the summer especially kind of after the drop going into the summer that's when you start to you know, start to get interested in Bitcoin. Um So, think about the July, August, September time frame. Knowing that if you buy then, there still could be one last drop, right? Like there was one last drop in 2022, the FTX collapse we had in Q4. There was one last drop in 2018 that we that started in November. There's also one last drop in 2014 that actually bled into the very beginning of 2015. "

"So, we have now seen them cross. And you know, usually when they cross, the low's not immediately in like that's never happened before. I'm not saying it can't, but it's never happened before. Usually the month though, usually the low occurs within about one to three to like one to four months. Okay. So that could be anywhere between say like now and July, August, September, October, who knew, right? "

"If you look at 2018, you can see it started in September. The S&P M2 factor would actually correspond to September. And you know, if that is the case, we know that Bitcoin, well we don't know, but I think Bitcoin might bottom in October. And so if the stock market were to top in September, then maybe Bitcoin would bottom out pretty quickly just because it would react to whatever the stock market's reacting to a lot quicker because it's just further up the risk curve. It would get hit a lot quicker than the stock market and potentially Bitcoin then finds that low sometime in the fourth quarter. Maybe as early as as October. "

"I have to think right now that the next low likely forms in June. And there probably will be a rally kind of like early Q3, July August which would then set up the final drop into sort of the September, October timeframe. And if that plays out, and we're sitting here in Q4, and Bitcoin is is is trading at a low price, I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of people that are bullish now that are going to be bearish then. But, that'll probably be the time to pivot. "