"I would expect Bitcoin to set a low in June. I would. That is a a likely month for a low. But, if it's only around 60K plus or minus a few thousand, like let's say it's, you know, somewhere between where the current where it's already bottomed maybe like 57K or 58K, then the jury is still going to be out on whether that's actually the low or not because even in 2018, you still had a Q4 capitulation."
Predictions closed
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… And if we sweep that low, then you could argue that the bear market did in fact continue, and that it was a mistake for, you know, people to think that the bear market was over. At this point, we're still above the 200-week moving average. Um but, we still are in that window of weakness for Bitcoin in the month of June. I would expect Bitcoin to set a low in June. I would. That is a a likely month for a low. But, if it's only around 60K plus or minus a few thousand, like let's say it's, you know, somewhere between where the current where it's already bottomed maybe like 57K or 58K, then the jury is still going to be out on whether that's actually the low or not because even in 2018, you still had a Q4 capitulation. And in 2022, you still had a Q4 capitulation. Now, one thing to notice though is that the capitulations, you know, in Q4 weren't as bad if you kind of plot it out like, you know, one to the other. So, maybe this one won't be as bad, but I also, you know, can't ignore the fact that we did go below the 200-week moving average last cycle. And so, it …