"So, for me, in order for it to really feel like the low in June, and for me to actually flip and say, you know what, the bear market doesn't have to last until October, I would need to see a a capitulation, you know, below 60k."
Predictions closed
For informational purposes only. Not investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Full disclaimer
… A lot of times the cycle just plays out how it usually does, and and with Bitcoin rallies to the 200-day moving average are are very common in bear markets, right? I mean, it you could argue it it wouldn't be a bear market if we didn't have a rally to a to the 200-day moving average and a subsequent rejection off of it. So, for me, you know, I look at I I look at these rejections off the 200-day moving average and I'm like, is this different? Last cycle, the rejection occurred in in like March {slash} April. And the cycle before that, we we actually had a rejection in August and also in May, right? We had a rejection in May. And what happened is Bitcoin then swept the February low, right? So, a lot of similarities still, where you have a a low in February, a higher low in late March, early April, a a high in May, and then you get you you then sort of form a capitulation low in the month …