Skip to content
Verdiktum
B
Benjamin Cowen (Into the Cryptoverse)
Claim author · 📅 26.05.2026 · Bitcoin: The Four Year Cycle Is Not Dead
Fulfilled

"The last two cycles topped on day 1,059 and 1,068, and yet the current cycle topped on day 1,062. So, Bitcoin topped within 1 week of when it historically tops. Despite the narratives for calling the 4-year cycle dead."

Fulfilled. Benjamin Cowen stated that the last two Bitcoin cycles topped on day 1,059 and 1,068 from their prior lows, and the 'current' cycle (referring to the 2021 peak) topped on day 1,062. This places Bitcoin's top within one week of its...
👁️ 19 💬 0

Predictions closed

Verification ✦ Analysis generated with AI Pro
Methodology Benjamin Cowen stated that the last two Bitcoin cycles topped on day 1,059 and 1,068 from their prior lows, and the 'current' cycle (referring to the 2021 peak) topped on day 1,062. This places Bitcoin's top within one week of its historical pattern. Multiple sources corroborate these figures, indicating similar cycle lengths from bottom to top. For instance, the 2015-2017 cycle lasted approximately 1,068 days, and the 2018-2021 cycle lasted around 1,061-1,064 days. This consistency supports Cowen's assertion that the four-year cycle is not dead, despite narratives suggesting otherwise.
Available in the Pro plan Full AI analysis, sources, counterarguments Unlock Pro
🔄 Last review: 20.06.2026 📥 Added: 20.06.2026
🤖
AI-generated analysis: This result is an assessment by a language model, not an expert opinion or a legally binding verdict. Verify sources before making any decisions. Model: gemini-2.5-flash

For informational purposes only. Not investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Full disclaimer

AI is analyzing your argument…
Source (proof) Plays from the quoted moment
Transcript excerpt English

how the tops line up in time, almost to within a week of each other. You could also look at it from the 2018 bottom and see the same thing, that if you actually overlay these bull markets, they topped all around the same time. And so, there's a chart that looks at this, it's this one. This one does it a little bit more precisely. You can see that the last two cycles topped on day 1,059 and 1,068, and yet the current cycle topped on day 1,062. So, Bitcoin topped within 1 week of when it historically tops. Despite the narratives for calling the 4-year cycle dead. If you extend it out to the next low, it would suggest that there is still some bear market ahead of us. That doesn't mean that Bitcoin has to go to $10,000. I'm not saying that. I'm just saying that in terms of a time-based capitulation component, I would expect a a another sell-off by Bitcoin as we get, you know, as we continue on through the ye

Comments

No comments yet. Be the first!

Sign in to leave a comment.


Community Arguments (AI Feedback)

Log in to use this feature

Login

Related claims by Benjamin Cowen (Into the Cryptoverse)

B
Benjamin Cowen (Into the Cryptoverse) 10.06.2026
Pending
"So, we have now seen them cross. And you know, usually when they cross, the low's not immediately in like that's never happened before. I'm not saying it can't, but it's never happened before. Usually the month though, usually the low occurs within about one to three to like one to four months. Okay. So that could be anywhere between say like now and July, August, September, October, who knew, right? "
🔮 Forecast Economy 🗓️ 31.10.2026
B
Benjamin Cowen (Into the Cryptoverse) 04.06.2026
Pending
"If Bitcoin were to crash to 40K this month, then the odds of the low being in June go up astronomically. If the low just holds at 60, then there's there's a chance that's the low, but the jury would still be out, right? "
🌐 Scenario Economy
B
Benjamin Cowen (Into the Cryptoverse) 06.06.2026
Pending
"My best guess is that Bitcoin sets a low in June and then has a counter trend rally and then has another low in October. I would argue that there is a high likelihood that the October low would be lower than the June low. "
🔮 Forecast Economy 🗓️ 31.10.2026
B
Benjamin Cowen (Into the Cryptoverse) 27.05.2026
Pending
"If you look at 2018, you can see it started in September. The S&P M2 factor would actually correspond to September. And you know, if that is the case, we know that Bitcoin, well we don't know, but I think Bitcoin might bottom in October. And so if the stock market were to top in September, then maybe Bitcoin would bottom out pretty quickly just because it would react to whatever the stock market's reacting to a lot quicker because it's just further up the risk curve. It would get hit a lot quicker than the stock market and potentially Bitcoin then finds that low sometime in the fourth quarter. Maybe as early as as October. "
🌐 Scenario Economy