Raoul Pal on Economy — predictions scored

"And what I get to is there is almost no way for this not to be a super cycle. Mhm. And even the bottlenecks just slow it down, but it has to keep expend. So what is a bottleneck? It actually needs more expenditure. You need to build out the power stuff. You need to build out whatever it is. And so what you've got is the largest capex cycle I think humanity will ever see at this rate. Well, maybe there's another one to space later, but right now is this. "

"Within 2 years, the majority of economic transactions on Earth will be invisible to humans. They're not hidden or secret, they just operating at machine speed a scale and resolution that exists entirely beyond human perception. That couldn't happen in the old system, but it can in the new system. And the new system is built for this. It's a dark economy and we will only be about 5% of it. "

"GDP as we measure it is about to become obsolete. I think I marked it as 2030 to 2032. I think 2030 is going to be on the nose for this. So we don't have very long. We're in 2026, May 2026. We're not very long before the entire structure of the economy changes. "

"Within 2 years, the majority of economic transactions on Earth will be invisible to humans. I.e. we're not doing them. They're not hidden or secret. They're just operating at machine speed, a scale and resolution that exists entirely beyond human perception. That couldn't happen in the old system, but it can in the new system. And the new system is built for this. It's a dark economy and we will only be about 5% of it. "

"Um so I think we'll get rotations. You know, it doesn't always have to be about Nvidia. As you say, there'll be times when it's going to take a while to push a new breakthrough from algorithmic compression or build these data centers in enough scale to show the next big step. you know, after Mythos, maybe it's going to be difficult for a while. Maybe not. It's not proven difficult yet. They've never yet hit any boundary and they keep saying we're not hitting boundaries and we thought we would and we haven't. But I do think there'll be rotations as as you say it goes through different component parts and kind of breaks them down because you know if you think about the bottleneck theory. So you find a bottleneck whatever it may be power what that bottleneck does is concentrate capital into that particular issue because if the universe is solving for intelligence per unit of energy it will clear all roadblocks to get there and capital is how you do it. capital and attention. "