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Leszek Sykulski on Armed conflicts — predictions scored

Leszek Sykulski on Armed conflicts — predictions scored

78 tracked claims · Accuracy: 85%

Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 12.01.2026
Fulfilled
"If the United States attacks Iran, it will trigger a geopolitical chain reaction that will affect the entire world, global trade. The economic crisis will also intensify, along with financial instability, and an increase in fuel prices, which will of course also translate into increased living costs. But let's remember that American involvement in the Middle East will also be fully exploited by the Russian Federation when it comes to Europe. "
translated PL · original
🌐 Scenario Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 03.03.2026
Pending
"Is this the great war in the Middle East? Well, it was confirmed in June 2025, this first phase of the war with Iran, a 12-day war. First, Israel's aggression against Iran on June 13, then the United States joining on June 22. This is a reconnaissance phase, one might say, the first phase of this war. And what we have been observing since February 28 of this year, well, that is already the second phase. It is not excluded that there will be an even greater escalation of this war. This absolutely cannot be ruled out. We see that everything indicates that the potential for escalation to at least a regional war is enormous. It is enormous today. "
translated PL · original
⚠️ Warning Armed Conflicts 2026
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 01.03.2026
Pending
"Has any significant minister, prime minister, or the president of Ukraine himself been attacked since 2014 or since the second phase of the war in Ukraine, since 2022? Not a hair fell from Volodymyr Zelenskyy's head, none of the Ukrainian prime ministers, none of the Ukrainian ministers, the chief of the general staff, and so on and so forth. Bankova Street, the most important street for public utility or state administration buildings, is untouched. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 01.03.2026
! Misleading
"Up until now, Iran has launched over 470 missiles, uhh, over 460 drones. This is not a large response, but a response that reached Israel. Over 200 missiles fell there, most of which were intercepted, but not all. Some reached targets in Israel. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 16.02.2026
! Disputed
"Germany can acquire nuclear weapons much faster than Poland. Similarly, Ukraine. I emphasize once again, it is not in Poland's interest to fuel a nuclear arms race. Possessing nuclear weapons is a huge responsibility. One needs truly powerful special services capable of ensuring security, which Poland does not possess today. One needs huge technological and engineering facilities, dual-use objects, etc., which Poland does not have today. "
translated PL · original
💬 Opinion Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 16.02.2026
Pending
"A state that acquires nuclear weapons automatically becomes the target of an adversary's preemptive plans. Let's not pretend that such declarations are not heard in Berlin, Kyiv, Moscow, or Minsk. This declaration by President Nawrocki will have very far-reaching consequences, in my opinion, in the form of Germany's desire to very quickly acquire nuclear weapons. This will accelerate the German process under the guise, of course, of a threat from Russia, the Putin argument, and so on. However, if a formation like Alternative for Germany or even more radical circles come to power in Germany, I fear that this escalation of the nuclear arms spiral will backfire on the Polish state. "
translated PL · original
⚠️ Warning Armed Conflicts 2031
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 16.02.2026
Fulfilled
"In my opinion, this will aim, that is, it will result in the winding up of a certain spiral both in Germany and in Ukraine. Germans will say, 'Look, there is a potential threat here from Poland possibly acquiring nuclear weapons. It's worth having German nuclear weapons just in case.' Ukrainians will think similarly. If the Polish president calls for Polish nuclear weapons, then why shouldn't Ukraine have these nuclear weapons? "
translated PL · original
🔮 Forecast Armed Conflicts 2026
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 16.02.2026
True
"Poland is a member of the NPT, is a member of the non-proliferation treaty, and this is a treaty that prohibits non-nuclear-weapon states from acquiring them. Poland is a signatory to the NPT as a non-nuclear-weapon state, and withdrawal from this treaty would, of course, entail various consequences, from weakening international credibility through possible sanctions, and then to a potential crisis with countries that would not agree to Poland acquiring nuclear weapons, which would also mean a potential nuclear arms race in the region. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 16.02.2026
Pending
"A situation where the Polish state will be surrounded by states possessing nuclear weapons. On one side, in the east, Russian nuclear weapons in the Kaliningrad Oblast, on the territory of the Republic of Belarus, if Ukraine acquired nuclear weapons, then another state, and from the west, Germany, which possesses nuclear weapons. "
translated PL · original
🌐 Scenario Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 16.02.2026
Pending
"Ukraine has many times, dozens of times, greater engineering and technological potential to build its own nuclear weapons. This is not just about nuclear power plants, it's not just about engineering staff, but also about powerful arms factories and nuclear weapons delivery capabilities. I'd like to see anyone today rule out Kyiv possessing nuclear weapons. The situation in which Polish state politicians fuel the atmosphere of a spiral, these spirals of nuclear armaments, may backfire on the Polish state, because I personally would not want either Germany, Germany and Ukrainians to simultaneously possess nuclear weapons. "
translated PL · original
⚠️ Warning Armed Conflicts 2031
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 02.02.2026
! Misleading
"In 2024, the Supreme Audit Office published a report titled, and I quote, you won't shelter in a shelter. There are anti-atomic shelters in Poland on paper for 300,000 people. For 300,000 all shelters and hideouts. for 1.4 million, below 4% of the population. Anyone who today incites war, anyone who today wants to send young Poles to someone else's war is a criminal. Is a criminal. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 28.01.2026
True
"Poland has no capabilities, there is no such thing as strategic depth or the ability for the Polish state to absorb nuclear strikes. Poland has no strategic depth. Poland has no critical infrastructure protection system for such an event. Poland has no system of shelters for civilian protection, civil defense. Below 4% of the Polish population has access to shelters and hiding places. And in the event of war, a potential nuclear war, we are talking about 300,000 places in shelters, i.e., in hermetic facilities capable of protecting against the effects of weapons of mass destruction. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 09.01.2026
True
"Venezuela. Of course, this is January 3rd of this year, but also looking at the entire last year, one must mention the bombing of Nigeria, joining the bombing of Iran, to that bombing which Israel started on June 13. The United States joined this bombing on June 22. And Iraq was bombed in March last year. And several hundred different types of airstrikes on Yemen, over 100 airstrikes on Somalia. And finally, of course, also the bombing of Syria. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 08.01.2026
True
"As of June 13, the first day of the Israeli attack on Iran, at least 10 Iranian scientists died. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 05.01.2026
Pending
"On January 3, 2026, the United States attacked Venezuela. On December 25, 2025, the USA bombed Nigeria. To this, we must, of course, add the bombing of Syria on December 19 last year, the bombing of Iraq on March 13, or the bombing of Iran on June 22, 2025. If we also add several hundred airstrikes on Yemen, over 100 strikes on Somalia, then we have the full picture of Donald Trump's first year of presidency. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 03.01.2026
True
"In 2011, NATO bombed Libya. Gaddafi was murdered and so on. We know, a civil war began in Libya, the destabilization of this state. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 03.01.2026
True
"On January 3, 2026, the United States attacked Venezuela. American special forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife and took them out of the country. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 03.01.2026
! Misleading
"In 2000, he announced that Iraq would sell oil in euros instead of dollars. Well, we know how it ended. In 2003, there was an American invasion, a forceful change of the political system, and the execution of Hussein. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 03.01.2026
Pending
"Israel has already received the green light for the second phase of the war. This took place at the end of December 2025 during Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump's residence in Florida. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 05.03.2026
True
"We also need to add to all this the three F and Strike Eagle fighter jets that the United States lost on March 1st of this year. They were lost as a result of shelling by Kuwaiti air defense, which mistook them for Turkish machines, meaning Iranian combat machines. Well, the cost, these losses are estimated at over 280 million. million dollars. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 03.03.2026
Fulfilled
"In practice, this means doubling the number of nuclear-capable Rafale multirole aircraft. Today there are 50 such aircraft in service. They are deployed in three other bases. They are armed with ASMPA supersonic missiles. And they have a declared range of 500 km, a speed of about Mach 3, and possess a nuclear warhead with a yield of 100 to 300 kt depending on its setting. It is estimated, as I said, that this will practically be a doubling. It will be a doubling, and France's air nuclear potential is to increase from 50 to 90 aircraft, and the number of air-launched warheads is to increase from over 50 to over 90. "
translated PL · original
🔮 Forecast Armed Conflicts 2036
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 03.03.2026
· Unverified
"Żołnierze izraelscy rozpoczęli działania lądowe w południowym Libanie. To oczywiście jest również naruszenie prawa międzynarodowego, ale jak widzimy na naszych oczach, cały ten ład instytucjonalny, cały ten ład oparty na poszanowaniu prawa międzynarodowego po prostu legł w gruzach. "
🌐 original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 03.03.2026
True
"It is a fact that we are dealing with a complete devastation of this post-World War II order. And as for nuclear non-proliferation treaties, as for nuclear arms limitation treaties, virtually little of all this remains, not to say simply nothing. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 03.03.2026
· Unverified
"Koszty będą ponosić nie tylko Amerykanie, będą ponosić także sojusznicy Stanów Zjednoczonych, także w Polsce, jeżeli ta wojna będzie się będzie się przeciągać. A pamiętajmy, że Stany Zjednoczone mają coraz mniej zapasów broni. "
🌐 original
⚠️ Warning Armed Conflicts 2026
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 03.03.2026
Fulfilled
"This is extremely interesting because it shows all the behind-the-scenes of the decision to aggress a sovereign independent state, the Islamic Republic of Iran. And this information, which emerged on March 2, 2026, officially stated by the head of American diplomacy, is in a way even shocking for people not well-versed in international politics, because it shows that a 9.5 million-strong state with just over 20,000 sq km in the east dictates the terms of the geostrategic game to a superpower, a hegemon until recently. "
translated PL · original
💬 Opinion Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 02.03.2026
Fulfilled
"The President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced that the goal is a change of power, a change of the political system, or a change of regime, as he put it in Tehran. Well, that means this conflict will be much longer than 24 or 48 hours, as some even assumed, that there would be some pinpoint strikes, that after one, two, maybe three days there would be negotiations, that all parties to the conflict, i.e., Israel, the United States, and Iran, would sit down at the negotiating table. Well, it doesn't look like that. "
translated PL · original
🔮 Forecast Armed Conflicts 2026
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 02.03.2026
Failed
"These very aggressive statements by the President of the United States indicate that this aggressive war with Iran could last four, or perhaps even five weeks, based on today's assumptions, as of March 2, because we don't know if the situation will get out of control and there won't be one big regional war. "
translated PL · original
🔮 Forecast Armed Conflicts 2026
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 02.03.2026
! Misleading
"We have no appeal to the aggressors to refrain from attacking an independent state that in no way provoked this attack. We have no appeal to the authorities in Jerusalem, to the authorities in Washington, to stop the aggression, aggression in the light of international law against a sovereign state, to refrain from killing children, because let me remind you that in the attack on a girls' school in southern Iran, over 100 girls died and there is no condemnation here. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 22.02.2026
True
"On February 18, 2026, the Institute of National Remembrance announced that the Ministry of Culture of Ukraine had issued final consent for search works in Huta Pieniacka. I will only remind that on February 28, 1944, a pacification action of the Polish civilian population took place in Huta Pieniacka, resulting in the death of approximately 850 people. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 18.02.2026
True
"the probability of war, the probability of the outbreak of war is 90%. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 17.02.2026
True
"President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a meeting at Mar-a-Lago in December that the U.S. would support strikes if no deal was made with Iran. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 17.02.2026
· Unverified
"W kontekście tych narastających napięć i tego wycofywania się Amerykanów z Bliskiego Wschodu też warto powiedzieć o komunikacie rzecznika Talibów Mudżahida, który zadeklarował gotowość Afganistanu do wsparcia Islamskiej Republiki Iranu, gdyby doszło do ataku Stanów Zjednoczonych. "
🌐 original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 17.02.2026
? Unverifiable
"According to an American station, talks have been ongoing since December. Military-intelligence talks were held in the United States between military and intelligence officers of the United States and Israel about forms of potential aid in case of a second phase of war with Iran. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 17.02.2026
Pending
"Such a specific declaration was supposed to be made during the meeting of both politicians, Trump and Netanyahu, in Mar-a-Lago, at Donald Trump's residence in Florida. And two months later, what we observed, the topic of potential military support by the United States for Israel simply became a topic of discussion at the highest level in the American military and in American intelligence. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 17.02.2026
True
"The Syrian army recently took control of the Al-Tanf base, which is located near the border with Iraq and Jordan. And all this means a very clear reduction of the direct US military presence in the region. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 17.02.2026
Pending
"It follows that not so much during Netanyahu's last visit, but already in December 2025, Donald Trump was supposed to have assured the Israeli prime minister of support for Israeli attacks on targets related to the broadly understood Iranian missile program. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 17.02.2026
True
"And according to American media reports, the authorities in Washington and the Pentagon are preparing for a potentially long-term, even multi-week, military operation against Iran, which would mean that a regional war could occur, as I said. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 17.02.2026
! Misleading
"CBS reports that Americans are analyzing specific aid scenarios. This is all the more important in the context of, well, this second carrier group led by the USS Gerald Ford, which was already decided by the Pentagon to be directed to the Middle East. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 17.02.2026
True
"“The forces of the Syrian Arab Army have taken over the al-Shaddadi military base in the Hasakeh countryside following coordination with the American side” "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 16.02.2026
Pending
"If even units subordinate to special services, such as the second radioelectronic center in Przasnysz, are so poorly protected that civilian drones fly in and soldiers are unable to shoot them down. They do not even have any portable electronic warfare systems that would allow them to neutralize such a drone. So what are we even talking about? If the authorities of the Polish state are unable to demonstrate on the international arena what drones entered Poland from September 9 to 10, 2025, then how would President Karol Nawrocki want to ensure the security of such units where nuclear weapons would be stored today? "
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💬 Opinion Armed Conflicts

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