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Verdiktum

Igor Janke on Armed conflicts — predictions scored

Igor Janke on Armed conflicts — predictions scored

187 tracked claims · Accuracy: 84%

Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
? Unverifiable
"The commander of this type of troops became a man who, before the war, was by no means a soldier of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Yuriy Vaganov, that is, a man who from the beginning of the conflict was involved in building Russia's grassroots capabilities for using drones, meaning he was involved in their purchase, acquisition through volunteering, and the creation of volunteer units equipped with such drones. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
Pending
"Currently, the Russians are forming five independent unmanned systems regiments, each in a military district. In addition, at least nine independent unmanned systems battalions are currently operating at the army and divisional levels. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
True
"Ukrainians are able to shoot down, depending on the phase of the war, because it also changes a bit, but from 75 to 90% of drones that attack the territory of Ukraine. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
True
"Currently, the death zone on the Ukrainian front already extends over 20 km. A death zone where these drones of various types and ranges create zones in which not only the survival of vehicles but also individual soldiers becomes problematic. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
! Misleading
"We have data here regarding the troop strength of both countries' armed forces, can I ask for that slide. The Chinese People's Liberation Army, that's about two, here it has two three and a half, maybe even up to two and a half million. The United States is currently at about 1.3. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
True
"In the first stage of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, drones primarily served as a means of reconnaissance, which significantly increased the effectiveness of artillery fire, meaning that drones, by emitting real-time images, increased the transparency of the battlefield, initially by several, then by more than a dozen kilometers, enabling very effective artillery engagement. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
Pending
"Currently, Ukrainians, using both flying drone systems, as well as transport drones of the second class I mentioned, and autonomous ground vehicles, are able to deliver approximately 30 tons of supplies at the brigade level. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
True
"The only regiment-sized unit was the 216th Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment, which belonged to the navy. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.05.2026
True
"Thanks to very precise, very well-aimed, often repeated attacks on the same places, the Ukrainians managed at some point to disable as much as 40% of Russian oil refining capacity. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.05.2026
True
"When the USA and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February 2026, many experts expected it to be a short operation. Something similar to Venezuela, where eliminating a key leader was enough to end actions against that country. And at first, that's how it seemed. That is, the USA and Israel eliminated the entire Iranian top leadership, and everyone expected that to be the end of it. However, the exact opposite happened. The conflict spread very widely to other Persian Gulf countries, as Iran wanted to raise the economic and political cost of the entire operation. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 08.05.2026
True
"Russian actions in the event of an attack on the bank of the Kherson Oblast, which is under Ukrainian control, have long had the hallmarks of war crimes. Practically every week, Russian drone operators stationed in this part of the oblast attack civilian targets, and we are talking about targets such as buses, ambulances, or even single individuals at bus stops. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 07.05.2026
! Misleading
"We must clearly state that Poland does not have long-range strike capabilities. Without the Americans, and even with the Americans, it's very moderate. We do not have an effective defense system. Against such threats. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 07.05.2026
? Unverifiable
"Karaganov was right. Why did we isolate and only have the Ukraine war? We should have horizontally escalated like Iran, hit those weak ears in the Baltic states, in Poland. Americans would have chickened out, they wouldn't have managed. Deter them, isolate them from the war. Why didn't we do that? And in a drone war. One that is escalatory controlled. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 05.05.2026
Occurred
"At the moment when martial law is introduced, at the moment when the threat simply begins to be realized, the state has the right to use our private property. It can use our private real estate, it can use our cars, it can use the fixed assets of enterprises. "
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⚠️ Warning Armed Conflicts 2031
Igor Janke Igor Janke 05.05.2026
True
"Russia announced a ceasefire to be in effect on May 8 and 9. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 05.05.2026
Pending
"On Monday evening, Iran carried out an attack targeting the United Arab Emirates. The target of Iranian drones and missiles was primarily facilities located at the refinery in the Emirate of Fujairah, situated in the eastern part of the country on the Gulf of Oman. The strike on Emirati facilities caused flights to Dubai and Sharjah to be halted. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 05.05.2026
True
"Well, today it's unlikely, but today, okay. Our air force is waiting for F35s. Our navy is waiting for frigates and submarines. Our artillery is waiting for HAARS, ammunition for them, expanding barrel artillery. Our mechanized forces are waiting for modern infantry fighting vehicles. They are supplementing the number of tanks. The inspectorate of unmanned systems was established only last year and is still more in the planning stage than creating the drone armada that the prime minister announced. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 27.04.2026
True
"Since Saturday, Al-Qaeda-linked Islamists along with Tuaregs from the Azawad Liberation Front are conducting an offensive against government forces. Until now, both organizations were in conflict with each other, but they united against the Malian military authority. They targeted several of the country's largest cities, including its capital Bamako, in their coordinated attacks. According to Africa News television, Malian armed forces are having increasing difficulty containing the jihadist attacks. Malian soldiers along with Russian mercenaries have been almost entirely pushed out of the northern part of the country. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 24.04.2026
? Unverifiable
"Ukraine does not give us all the information it possesses. Ukraine does not provide information about many individuals who, firstly, may carry out hybrid, sabotage, diversionary activities in Poland and have fled from Ukraine. It sometimes does not give us information about individuals who acted harmfully in Poland and went to Ukraine. We want information about these people. We even want these people to be put behind bars. Ukraine does not give us this information. Information exchange between services is very strongly limited. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 24.04.2026
Pending
"Lebanon estimates losses after a month-and-a-half-long war with Israel. During it, the Israeli army was said to have destroyed or damaged nearly 62,000 homes. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 24.04.2026
True
"Russia is introducing literally everything from the simplest methods like paying, for example, via Telegram, via VK, via Facebook, via games. It can pay $7 for taking photos of specific objects. It can pay $20 for delivering a package from point A to point B. It can pay even more for a simple USB drive that someone delivers to someone. And it can pay $10,000, $20,000 for setting something on fire, for planting explosives, or simply for extensive observation, as we had these groups of 'kamerkowcy' (camera operators), because this transport to Ukraine or our entire railway communication, this is a great challenge where Russia has simply recognized all of this. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 23.04.2026
True
"“We are transforming the Bundeswehr into Europe's strongest conventional army.” “The strategy sets a target to establish a total force of 460,000 troops by 2035.” "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 23.04.2026
True
"Last night Donald Trump extended the ceasefire. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 20.04.2026
Pending
"The war conducted since the end of February has led to the destruction of over 80 fossil fuel processing facilities across the Middle East. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 19.04.2026
Pending
"It seems to me that these activities will continue as before, only they will be much more intense in terms of effectiveness, which we will observe, but we will also observe more and more various blunders, whether Russian or Belarusian, due to the fact that such activity of services always involves high risk and the possibility of blunders, but these are blunders inherent in the impact, in the costs of operational activities, because you can do it long-term, avoid blunders and carry out some activities, but if you need intensity, then at the cost of this quality and the cost of this risk. "
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⚠️ Warning Armed Conflicts 2026
Igor Janke Igor Janke 15.04.2026
Pending
"“The 2026 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire is a cessation of hostilities agreed between Israel and Lebanon on 16 April 2026.” "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 15.04.2026
True
"Ukraine concluded a comprehensive defense cooperation agreement with Germany. A new consultation center for Ukrainian refugees wishing to return to their country was opened in Berlin. The first German-Ukrainian intergovernmental consultations in 22 years took place in Berlin. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.04.2026
True
"The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced in its statement that it would not allow any Iranian ships, nor ships belonging to other countries and using Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, to pass. According to Trump's declarations, the American military is to destroy Iranian warships as soon as they approach the blockade. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 10.04.2026
True
"and there is no evidence that nuclear installations are broken, and you speak ironically about this great victory of the Iranians. But there is no American victory either. It's hard to notice that. Perhaps it will turn out in the future, but that might turn out. For now, it was that the whole world pressured the Americans. Americans themselves protested and were also dissatisfied. Publicly, those who couldn't say it, were also not happy. American research clearly showed this. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 09.04.2026
True
"Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz due to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Israel can resume war at any moment. Donald Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries supplying weapons to Iran. The American Vice President criticizes the President of Ukraine for attacks targeting the Hungarian government. The leader of the Taiwanese opposition called for reconciliation between Taiwan and the People's Republic of China. The President of the Czech Republic intends to participate in the NATO summit despite government opposition. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 09.04.2026
Pending
"Israel carried out its most intense bombardments of Lebanon on Wednesday since the start of its operation in early March. The main target of the Israeli air force is Beirut. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, at least 254 people died as a result of the actions of the Israeli defense forces. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 08.04.2026
! Misleading
"neither changed the regime, nor ensured that Iran will certainly not produce nuclear weapons, and unblocking the Strait of Hormuz is just unblocking something that was also unblocked before. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 08.04.2026
! Misleading
"but even this greatest military power was not able to achieve its goals in a short time. Yes. It did not achieve any of these goals. Neither did it change the regime, nor did it ensure that Iran will certainly not produce nuclear weapons, and unblocking the Strait of Hormuz is just unblocking something that was also unblocked before. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 07.04.2026
True
"Besides, the only way out is this, and it's the most obvious action, that we must arm ourselves powerfully and as quickly as possible, and not only relying on American equipment. Because, as you can see today, Americans are not even able to produce as much equipment as they have orders for. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 04.04.2026
Pending
"I think that this Ukrainian missile program, the entire ecosystem of unmanned systems, will be developed, because at this moment no one is credibly able to promise Ukraine long-term financial assistance and long-term assistance in the form of arms supplies. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 31.03.2026
· Unverified
"Amerykanie, Izrael próbują likwidować kolejnych dowódców, a pojawiają się nowi na ich miejscu. Więc te struktury jakby są wielopiętrowe, ale z i odpowiada atakiem na sąsiadów, ale też Iran atak, te ataki Iranu na sąsiadów nie odnoszą swojego efektu. "
🌐 original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 31.03.2026
True
"we already know for sure that for the United States, Trump, his army, this invasion, meaning this attack, did not go as he wanted, right? it did not achieve its goal in as short a time as he wanted. This war is prolonged, costs a lot. Iran is defending itself much better than Americans expected. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 31.03.2026
True
"Donald Trump threatens Iran with massive destruction if it does not conclude a peace agreement to end the war. Spain has closed its airspace to planes participating in the war against Iran. The European Commission appeals to EU member states to limit oil consumption. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 26.03.2026
True
"And on the other hand, if you allow me, I will add, because I observed that part more with my own eyes. A large part of society there in Ukraine, yes, which did, performed various works for, for the army, or cooperated with the army and private companies that switched overnight to paramilitary companies cooperating with the military, or I don't know, women, grandmothers sewing some materials that were supposed to cover tanks, or a lot of other things producing for the needs of the army, society collecting huge amounts of money for the needs of the army. Yes, it was an unbelievable surge. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 26.03.2026
Occurred
"Isn't it true that in the face of what we've been dealing with for the past three weeks, that is, the war in Iran, the American-Israeli attack on Iran, and such a sudden redirection of attention that probably no one expected? Anyway, it wasn't announced. President Trump announced a completely different policy. I mean, don't we also have to prepare for such a situation and accept such a black scenario that the United States won't be in it, that their interest will be much, or their presence will be much smaller than it is? "
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⚠️ Warning Armed Conflicts 2026