"In the base scenario, petrol prices increase by 29 groszy per liter, diesel by 35 groszy. In the pessimistic scenario, based on real Bloomberg forecasts, the amounts rise to 46 groszy and 50 groszy respectively. "

"Interest next year will consume not 115 but 130, 140 billion zlotys. There will be nothing left to pay for benefits, defense, or investments without deep changes. "

"SpaceX will practically immediately and automatically enter these key indexes, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 as well, I believe. Also, ETFs will not so much want to, but will have to buy these shares. So, such passive demand will appear immediately. "

"There is a plan to unexpectedly attack Iran and pacify it. The plan is for a sudden, precise attack to neutralize and eliminate the entire command, the entire government of Iran. But this may not succeed. Iran will retaliate, and then there will be a huge attack on Iran. Wars will ignite, and this will lead to a crisis, including a large food crisis. "

"Democrats need ethics language to provide the seven crossover votes. Trump will veto any bill that contains ethics language. The bill cannot pass without it, and it likely cannot pass with it. "

"something bad will happen to Europe, because certain countries will become like countries adjacent to America. Either America will choose them, or they will be subservient to America. This will be Great Britain, these will be some European countries, but part of Europe will be abandoned by America, and this will start to divide Europe, and also divide the European Union. "

"And perfectly, perfectly on point here, this is happening, because this fourth quarter was already declining and the first quarter of 2026 confirms this trend. We have the second consecutive quarter of apartment price drops in these largest cities, and the bottom is predicted here by Tomek Narkun at the turn of 2029-2030. So now buying an apartment for rent is a very risky decision, because one must expect declines in these properties, and if I had to advise someone, I would tell them to wait a few years for possibly better apartment prices, to get a better return on investment, so that it wouldn't be at most 4% or 3% as it is currently in Warsaw, but for it to increase to 6-7% as it once was from renting. "

"SK H controls about 62% of the global HBM market. Samsung 17%, Micron 21. Three players control the entire market, and two of them are in Korea. And the scale of business according to Bank of America, the HBM market in 2026 will reach over $54 billion. This is a growth of nearly 60% year-on-year, and within two years it will reach $100 billion. "

"Demography plus misery equals export of people. 220 million Nigerians is not an abstract African problem. It's a question of what the migration map of Europe will look like in 5-10 years. "

"ASUS announced price increases for new computers by 25 to 30%. McQuery, an Australian investment bank, forecasts consumer electronics price increases of 10 to 20% in 2026. Numura more conservatively forecasts 5%. "

"Home appliances (washing machine, refrigerator, dryer), because it's not just a chip. It's also a kilo of plastic in the casing, a kilo of rubber in the seals, a kilo of aluminum in the drum. Everything three times more expensive. Itoro experts in Polish financial media are already saying directly: Smartphones, laptops, consoles, refrigerators, washing machines, everything will get more expensive in the coming months. "

"Annually, Japan could become insolvent at 2% rates. "

"The third option, which markets are already pricing in, is a controlled devaluation with half-open eyes. That is, the loss of money value, pretending everything is under control, verbal interventions, selling foreign exchange reserves. Exactly as Great Britain did in 1992 before George Soros' famous attack on the pound. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio in January 2026 called Japan exactly such a demonstrative case of what happens to every country that allows debt to grow above its service capacity. "

"However, if we conclude that the exchange might not get a MIKA license anyway, then what about July 1st? We have to settle with clients because we are closing down, we have no legal basis to continue operations. And now, we previously had loans in 2024 that were not fully returned. In 2025, we don't know how it was because we don't have an audit, we don't have reports for 2025, and we probably won't have them, so we don't know how it was. But one could suspect it was only worse. Therefore, we conclude that, okay, we were missing 100 million euros here, so what if the manager is missing 100 million or 500 million, if I just pack it all up and go somewhere unknown, or they won't find me anyway. So, it's possible that we are unfortunately going down the worst path, that the company knew it wouldn't get the license and was heading for a regulatory wall, where it would have to settle with clients anyway, and since it had borrowed earlier and wouldn't be able to return it, client obligations would not be fully settled anyway. So, whether I owe someone 100 million, or... "

"Optimistic scenario. Trump makes a deal with Iran. Ormus returns to normal. Jet fuel drops to $120 per barrel in summer. Bydgoszcz regains Frankfurt in the fourth quarter, and the pessimistic scenario: war escalates, Russia continues to scheme. European reserves fall below 23 days. physical shortages at airports, rationing, ban on short-haul flights, and with this scenario, a full recession in the aviation industry. "

"The direction of the flow of people, work, and capital between Poland and Germany is slowly starting to reverse, point-by-point. First in asparagus fields, then in care, then in construction, and in a few years perhaps in office jobs, in IT in medical specializations, because once a trend starts, it rarely stops at one industry. "

"Losses in private credit will be higher than we expect. Loan standards have loosened. Valuations are opaque, and when people see they can't get their money back, they will start selling everything else. "

"But once the new continuous trading schedule activates in late May, this specific structural artifact will cease to exist. There will never be another traditional weekend gap formed on the institutional futures chart because the market will simply never close. "

"If the OECD's projections prove accurate, well, the Federal Reserve is sitting dangerously behind the curve and will be forced into emergency policy reversals and the broader market is already pricing in this exact scenario. "