Claims
270 claims · 01.01.1150 – 11.06.2026
Content language
"In the base scenario, petrol prices increase by 29 groszy per liter, diesel by 35 groszy. In the pessimistic scenario, based on real Bloomberg forecasts, the amounts rise to 46 groszy and 50 groszy respectively. "
translated
PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
Medium timeframe
"Interest next year will consume not 115 but 130, 140 billion zlotys. There will be nothing left to pay for benefits, defense, or investments without deep changes. "
translated
PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"SpaceX will practically immediately and automatically enter these key indexes, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 as well, I believe. Also, ETFs will not so much want to, but will have to buy these shares. So, such passive demand will appear immediately. "
translated
PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"There is a plan to unexpectedly attack Iran and pacify it. The plan is for a sudden, precise attack to neutralize and eliminate the entire command, the entire government of Iran. But this may not succeed. Iran will retaliate, and then there will be a huge attack on Iran. Wars will ignite, and this will lead to a crisis, including a large food crisis. "
translated
PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Armed conflicts
2026
"And perfectly, perfectly on point here, this is happening, because this fourth quarter was already declining and the first quarter of 2026 confirms this trend. We have the second consecutive quarter of apartment price drops in these largest cities, and the bottom is predicted here by Tomek Narkun at the turn of 2029-2030. So now buying an apartment for rent is a very risky decision, because one must expect declines in these properties, and if I had to advise someone, I would tell them to wait a few years for possibly better apartment prices, to get a better return on investment, so that it wouldn't be at most 4% or 3% as it is currently in Warsaw, but for it to increase to 6-7% as it once was from renting. "
translated
PL · original
⚠️ Warning
Economy
2029
"SK H controls about 62% of the global HBM market. Samsung 17%, Micron 21%. Three players the entire market, and two of them are in Korea. And the scale of business according to Bank of America the HBM market in 2026 will reach over 54 billion dollars. This is an increase of nearly 60% year-on-year, and within two years 100 billion dollars. "
translated
PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
Ad
"Demography plus misery equals export of people. 220 million Nigerians is not an abstract African problem. It's a question of what the migration map of Europe will look like in 5-10 years. "
translated
PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Society
2036
"ASUS announced price increases for new computers by 25 to 30%. McQuery, an Australian investment bank, forecasts consumer electronics price increases of 10 to 20% in 2026. Numura more conservatively forecasts 5%. "
translated
PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Home appliances (washing machine, refrigerator, dryer), because it's not just a chip. It's also a kilo of plastic in the casing, a kilo of rubber in the seals, a kilo of aluminum in the drum. Everything three times more expensive. Itoro experts in Polish financial media are already saying directly: Smartphones, laptops, consoles, refrigerators, washing machines, everything will get more expensive in the coming months. "
translated
PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Stockpiles will last until May or June, and then new deliveries or lack thereof will be from new contracts at new, higher prices. "
translated
PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"The third option, which markets are already pricing in, is a controlled devaluation with half-open eyes. That is, the loss of money value, pretending everything is under control, verbal interventions, selling foreign exchange reserves. Exactly as Great Britain did in 1992 before George Soros' famous attack on the pound. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio in January 2026 called Japan exactly such a demonstrative case of what happens to every country that allows debt to grow above its service capacity. "
translated
PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
Short timeframe
"Annually, Japan could become insolvent at 2% rates. "
translated
PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Optimistic scenario. Trump makes a deal with Iran. Ormus returns to normal. Jet fuel drops to $120 per barrel in summer. Bydgoszcz regains Frankfurt in the fourth quarter, and the pessimistic scenario: war escalates, Russia continues to scheme. European reserves fall below 23 days. physical shortages at airports, rationing, ban on short-haul flights, and with this scenario, a full recession in the aviation industry. "
translated
PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"the dollar to the zloty will approach somewhere around 4 zł. "
translated
PL · original
💰 Price target
Economy
2027
"The direction of the flow of people, work, and capital between Poland and Germany is slowly starting to reverse, point-by-point. First in asparagus fields, then in care, then in construction, and in a few years perhaps in office jobs, in IT in medical specializations, because once a trend starts, it rarely stops at one industry. "
translated
PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
Long timeframe
Ad
"The International Monetary Fund forecasts that by 2030, the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to almost 130%. "
translated
PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2030
"Losses in private credit will be higher than we expect. Lending standards have loosened. Valuations are opaque, and when people see they can't get their money back, they will start selling everything else. "
translated
PL · original
⚠️ Warning
Economy
Short timeframe
"But once the new continuous trading schedule activates in late May, this specific structural artifact will cease to exist. There will never be another traditional weekend gap formed on the institutional futures chart because the market will simply never close. "
🔮 Forecast
Economy
Short timeframe
"If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, then Brent will stay above $100 throughout 2026, and in a pessimistic scenario, $120 in Q3, $115 in Q4. "
translated
PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"If the OECD's projections prove accurate, well, the Federal Reserve is sitting dangerously behind the curve and will be forced into emergency policy reversals and the broader market is already pricing in this exact scenario. "
🌐 Scenario
Economy