Chance of Bitcoin dropping to 50,000
"For this cohort to capitulate into net realized losses, the price would need to hit 50,000. There's a lot of people calling for $50,000 Bitcoin. A lot of people hoping for $50,000 Bitcoin. Uh and it's not completely impossible, but I allocate a very small percentage chance, like 5% or less to a dramatic cooling off."
ℹ️ In shortThe author believes a Bitcoin price drop to 50,000 dollars, leading to losses for long-term holders, is highly improbable.
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… they have not been buying. So that's also a bit of a positive. And long-term, this is also you could conrue as being bad or good or a top signal or a bottom signal. My interpretation is a little bit different, but the long-term holder realized profits are collapsing down to just 32% compared to the 350% profit peak we saw in December 2024. For this cohort to capitulate into net realized losses, the price would need to hit 50,000. There's a lot of people calling for $50,000 Bitcoin. A lot of people hoping for $50,000 Bitcoin. Uh and it's not completely impossible, but I allocate a very small percentage chance, like 5% or less to a dramatic cooling off. Again, the ETFs are not playing. ETFs did some record dumpage and the price held above 60K. So that's again positive. And if we look at the weekly RSI chart, this uh if you look at the piece at the bottom, it echoes the last time we had a prior market bottom. We're seeing a distinct weekly bullish divergence playing out on the RSI. And this struct …
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