"If it's ever pushed to sell in size into a market where trading volume has already collapsed by nearly half, it doesn't just take a loss, it becomes the market. And every other treasury company, all 195 of them holding 1.24 to 4 million BTC between them will feel it at once."

… The very things that made Strategy and its imitators so attractive on the way up, the leverage, the premium, the flywheel, are precisely what make them dangerous on the way down. These companies acted as an amplifier for market volatility, which is obviously a double-edged sword. Strategy, meanwhile, holds roughly 4% of all Bitcoin in existence. If it's ever pushed to sell in size into a market where trading volume has already collapsed by nearly half, it doesn't just take a loss, it becomes the market. And every other treasury company, all 195 of them holding 1.24 to 4 million BTC between them will feel it at once. So if strategies MNAV stays meaningfully below 1x, the flywheel cannot restart full stop. If that 6 and a bit month cash runway shrinks without fresh capital, force selling to cover those STRC dividends becomes a lot more likely. In terms of price, $60,000 is widely cited as the existential line where capital markets effectively close for these fi …