"I mean, I think Bitcoin's going to keep bleeding against both the stock market and gold and energy and manufacturing. This is what it does in mid-term years. It's not like in this case is not different this time. It's actually this is how it always plays out. The only the only thing is different this time is there wasn't a blow-off top. So, we you know, not we like we weren't really coming off that euphoric feeling. And I think a lot of times when you have a euphoria at the end of a cycle, that euphoria can take like five or six months mentally to kind of die out."

"And then once you get to the summer especially kind of after the drop going into the summer that's when you start to you know, start to get interested in Bitcoin. Um So, think about the July, August, September time frame. Knowing that if you buy then, there still could be one last drop, right? Like there was one last drop in 2022, the FTX collapse we had in Q4. There was one last drop in 2018 that we that started in November. There's also one last drop in 2014 that actually bled into the very beginning of 2015. "

"I have to think right now that the next low likely forms in June. And there probably will be a rally kind of like early Q3, July August which would then set up the final drop into sort of the September, October timeframe. And if that plays out, and we're sitting here in Q4, and Bitcoin is is is trading at a low price, I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of people that are bullish now that are going to be bearish then. But, that'll probably be the time to pivot. "

"If you look at 2018, you can see it started in September. The S&P M2 factor would actually correspond to September. And you know, if that is the case, we know that Bitcoin, well we don't know, but I think Bitcoin might bottom in October. And so if the stock market were to top in September, then maybe Bitcoin would bottom out pretty quickly just because it would react to whatever the stock market's reacting to a lot quicker because it's just further up the risk curve. It would get hit a lot quicker than the stock market and potentially Bitcoin then finds that low sometime in the fourth quarter. Maybe as early as as October. "

"My best guess is that Bitcoin sets a low in June and then has a counter trend rally and then has another low in October. I would argue that there is a high likelihood that the October low would be lower than the June low. "