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Benjamin Cowen (Into the Cryptoverse)
Claim author · 📅 04.06.2026 · Bitcoin Cliff Dwellers
~ Partially

"So, for me, in order for it to really feel like the low in June, and for me to actually flip and say, you know what, the bear market doesn't have to last until October, I would need to see a a capitulation, you know, below 60k."

Partially. Benjamin Cowen stated that for June to feel like the low and for him to change his mind about the bear market lasting until October, he would need to see a Bitcoin capitulation below $60k. Bitcoin did fall below $60k in June 2026,...
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Verification ✦ Analysis generated with AI Pro
Methodology Benjamin Cowen stated that for June to feel like the low and for him to change his mind about the bear market lasting until October, he would need to see a Bitcoin capitulation below $60k. Bitcoin did fall below $60k in June 2026, reaching lows around $59,130. The capitulation condition has been met. However, whether June will definitively be the low and if the bear market will not last until October remains to be seen, as June has not yet concluded, and the longer-term assessment is still active. Thus, the condition of the claim has been met, but the full consequence is still pending verification.
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🔄 Last review: 20.06.2026 📥 Added: 20.06.2026
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AI-generated analysis: This result is an assessment by a language model, not an expert opinion or a legally binding verdict. Verify sources before making any decisions. Model: gemini-2.5-flash

For informational purposes only. Not investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Full disclaimer

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A lot of times the cycle just plays out how it usually does, and and with Bitcoin rallies to the 200-day moving average are are very common in bear markets, right? I mean, it you could argue it it wouldn't be a bear market if we didn't have a rally to a to the 200-day moving average and a subsequent rejection off of it. So, for me, you know, I look at I I look at these rejections off the 200-day moving average and I'm like, is this different? Last cycle, the rejection occurred in in like March {slash} April. And the cycle before that, we we actually had a rejection in August and also in May, right? We had a rejection in May. And what happened is Bitcoin then swept the February low, right? So, a lot of similarities still, where you have a a low in February, a higher low in late March, early April, a a high in May, and then you get you you then sort of form a capitulation low in the month

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Benjamin Cowen (Into the Cryptoverse) 28.05.2026
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"And then once you get to the summer especially kind of after the drop going into the summer that's when you start to you know, start to get interested in Bitcoin. Um So, think about the July, August, September time frame. Knowing that if you buy then, there still could be one last drop, right? Like there was one last drop in 2022, the FTX collapse we had in Q4. There was one last drop in 2018 that we that started in November. There's also one last drop in 2014 that actually bled into the very beginning of 2015. "
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