"The reason why this is quite troublesome is if Bitcoin decides to continue that relationship, we should continue falling until Q4. Because what's not shown on this chart is this final capitulation at the end of 2018 right here, a 50% correction. And if you are a believer in the Bitcoin four-year cycle, you probably think something similar is going to be happening around October or around Q4."

"Bitcoin can absolutely fall lower. The macro headwinds are there, and this is how it could happen this year. June, mega IPOs/AI suck up all the capital. July, stock market crashes and bare market begins. August, the 10-year Treasury hits 6%. September, the Fed hikes rates. October, the Clarity Act fails to pass. November, midterm election chaos. December, a black swan. "

"Strategy sold 0.004% of its Bitcoin supply to prove to the S&P that it could. This is what's going to get Michael Saylor's Strategy into the S&P 500. Brilliant. "

"Moral of the story, do not chase hot IPOs. The year one average drawdown is 55%. The year one median drawdown is 54%. "

"So don't buy SpaceX, buy this instead. Buy what SpaceX is buying. And you'll notice this, SpaceX holds 6% of its corporate treasury in Bitcoin. They own over 18,000 Bitcoin. "