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Second scenario: the effect is already discounted, a small upward movement.

Albert Rokicki: "Second scenario: the effect is already discounted, a small upward movement." — Partially

A

📅 03.06.2026 · 🔥Czy po podpisaniu rozejmu Ukrainy 🇺🇦 z Rosją 🇷🇺 polsk... · 👁️ 36

Partially. The ceasefire condition was met between June 4 and June 9, 2026. During this period, some stock indices (e.g., FTSE 100 +0.1%, Dow +0.7%, S&P 500 +0.9%) showed small upward movements, consistent with the 'small upward mo...

"Second scenario: the effect is already discounted, a small upward movement." "Drugi scenariusz: efekt już zdyskontowany, niewielki ruch w górę."
🌐 (Machine-translated — original in Polish) · Original in Polishuage
🌐 Scenario 💰 Economy AI assessment confidence: 70% Resolves by: 2027 🌐 Jeśli nastąpi zawieszenie broni Assertiveness: medium Source on YouTube

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Transcript excerpt

Oryginał w języku Polskim Open on YouTube

Premia za ryzyko geopolityczne praktycznie zniknęła. Inwestorzy przyzwyczaili się do konfliktu za naszą wschodnią granicą. Co się stanie po zawieszeniu broni? Trzy scenariusze. Pierwszy, kapitał zagraniczny napływa do Polski jak nigdy wcześniej, bo jesteśmy najtańszą bramą do odbudowy Ukrainy. Plus 30 50% na największych spółkach. Drugi scenariusz: efekt już zdyskontowany, niewielki ruch w górę. Trzeci scenariusz: sprzedaż faktów po kupowaniu plotek i przynajmniej krótkoterminowa korekta spadkowa. Inwestorzy, którzy czekają na koniec wojny, żeby kupować, są spóźnieni o kilka lat. Najwięcej zarabia się wtedy, gdy jest strach, gdy strach jest największy, a nie, gdy wszyscy świętują pokój.

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