Copernicus: 2026 will end as the second-warmest year on record in its ERA5 data, behind 2024
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), global temperature 2026 · claimed on Nov 6, 2026 · original source
In its October 2026 bulletin, released in early November, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said 2026 is most likely to be the second-warmest year on record in ERA5 (about 80%), with about a 20% chance of tying or beating 2024. It also said 2026 is virtually certain to end more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Other groups read the year differently: Berkeley Earth's September update puts the chance of a record in its own dataset at about 96%, while NOAA's outlook favours second place. The claim will be settled when C3S publishes its annual Global Climate Highlights in early January 2027 and says where 2026 ranks in ERA5.
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