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"Lalka" by Maciej Kawalski to exceed 3 million cinema admissions in Poland by 31 December 2026
"Lalka" (2026), dir. Maciej Kawalski; distributor Kino Świat· claimed on Oct 21, 2026 · original source
The screen adaptation of Prus's novel entered cinemas on 30 September 2026. On 21 October Rzeczpospolita wrote that estimates of the final result point to about 3–3.5 million viewers, and on 5 November Filmweb assessed that a result above 3 million "is still within reach". According to the distributor Kino Świat, by 12 November nearly 2.8 million viewers had seen the film, more than any other film in Poland this year; the Box Office Raport ranking gives 2,731,787. In its sixth weekend (6–8 November) the film drew 67,447 viewers and finished ahead of the next three titles by fewer than 8 thousand. The matter will be settled by the total attendance at the end of 2026 as reported by the distributor and confirmed in independent box office compilations.
Kino Świat (12 November): "nearly 2,800,000 viewers" and the film will not reach streaming for a long time
The distributor's statement says "Lalka" has been seen by "nearly 2,800,000 viewers" and that it has overtaken the year's previous leader, "Spider-Man: Brand New Day". Producer Radosław Drabik assures in it that "for a long time there will be no possibility of watching it on streaming", which favours further ticket sales. According to this figure, slightly over 200 thousand viewers are missing to reach 3 million, and seven weeks remain until the end of the year.
Rzeczpospolita (21 October): 2 million in three weeks, estimates 3–3.5 million
According to the text by Barbara Hollender, the film had 622 thousand viewers after five days, 1.4 million after two weeks and 1.81 million after three weeks, and passed 2 million by Wednesday 21 October. The paper writes that "today estimates point to about 3–3.5 million viewers" (without indicating whose), and that on weekdays many screenings are filled by schools.
Box Office Raport: 67,447 viewers in the sixth weekend and 2,731,787 in the annual ranking
In the weekend chart for 6–8 November, "Lalka" is first with 67,447 viewers, but close behind are "Kot Prot" (62,030), "Przepis na święta" (61,397) and "Zobaczysz wszystko" (60,114). The site's annual ranking gives 2,731,787 viewers (with no update date), which is less than the "nearly 2.8 million" in the distributor's statement; from this figure, 268,213 viewers are missing to reach 3 million.
With the Box Office Raport figure, the threshold depends on whether the weekly decline falls below about 40%
Step 1: Filmweb (5 November) reports over 2.5 million tickets sold after October, Kino Świat (12 November) nearly 2.8 million, so in about 12 days at most about 300 thousand were added (both figures are rounded). Step 2: from 2,731,787 (Box Office Raport) to 3 million is 268,213 missing. Step 3: if the first week after this gives W viewers, and each following week d less, then over the 7 weeks to 31 December W·(1−(1−d)^7)/d will be added. For W = 110 thousand (the 67 thousand weekend times about 1.6–1.7) this comes to about 299 thousand at d = 35%, 267 thousand at 40% and 241 thousand at 45%. With the distributor's figure, the film needs less. W and d are assumptions that subsequent weekly data will verify; weekday school screenings (Rzeczpospolita) may raise the multiplier. Filmweb also lists Polish films that stopped just short of the threshold: "Katyń" (2.77 million), "Akademia Pana Kleksa" (2.93 million), "Listy do M. 2" (2.97 million).
