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NBU forecast: annual inflation in Ukraine at the end of 2026 will be 12.5%
National Bank of Ukraine· claimed on Oct 29, 2026 · original source
On 29 October 2026, the National Bank's Board raised the key policy rate to 16.5% and worsened its end-2026 inflation forecast to 12.5%; the forecast is set out in the NBU's October Inflation Report. According to State Statistics Service data, prices rose 1.8% month-on-month in October and 10.3% year-to-date (October to December 2025); annual inflation was 10% in September. The matter will be settled by the consumer price index for December 2026 against December 2025, which the State Statistics Service is due to publish in early January 2027.
NBU Inflation Report for October 2026: 12.5% forecast for year-end
In the report, the NBU raised its end-2026 inflation forecast to 12.5%. The main reasons, according to the NBU: more expensive fuel (above all diesel) and the destruction of warehouses and logistics as a result of Russian attacks; according to the NBU's estimate, the consequences of the shelling alone will add about 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation. The regulator expects inflation to slow from the first quarter of 2027, while the 5% target will only be reached at the end of 2028.
UNIAN on the NBU report: in Q3 inflation exceeded the July forecast, and price pressure will remain significant
According to UNIAN (6 November 2026), annual inflation accelerated from 7.2% in June to 10% in September, "significantly above the NBU's July forecast". The regulator warns that "inflationary pressure will remain significant in the coming months" due to the pass-through of higher fuel prices to other goods and services and rising costs from attacks. Thus, the NBU does not expect a sharp slowdown in monthly price growth by the end of the year.
Last year in November prices rose only 0.4% month-on-month
According to the State Statistics Service flash release of 9 December 2025, inflation in November 2025 was 0.4% compared with October (core: 0.3%), and annual inflation was 9.3%. If prices grow just as slowly in November and December 2026, annual inflation at year-end will end up noticeably below 12.5% (see calculation).
Calculation: to reach 12.5%, prices must rise by 2.0% over November and December combined, about 1.0% per month
Annual inflation for December is the increase in prices from December 2025, so base effects do not matter here. According to the State Statistics Service, the index for January–October 2026 stands at 110.3%, and October was 101.8% of September. To reach 112.5%, prices over the last two months must rise by 112.5 / 110.3 ≈ 1.020, i.e. by 2.0% (≈1.0% per month). If monthly growth is +0.4%, as in November 2025: 110.3 × 1.004² ≈ 111.2, i.e. about 11.2%. If October's pace of +1.8% continues: 110.3 × 1.018² ≈ 114.3, i.e. about 14.3%. The NBU forecast lies between these scenarios, so the outcome depends on how much monthly inflation slows.
