MNAV and Strategy's Business Model
"So if strategies MNAV stays meaningfully below 1x, the flywheel cannot restart full stop."
ℹ️ In shortIf Strategy's MNAV remains below 1x, its 'flywheel' strategy, which involves issuing stock to buy Bitcoin, cannot restart.
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… Strategy, meanwhile, holds roughly 4% of all Bitcoin in existence. If it's ever pushed to sell in size into a market where trading volume has already collapsed by nearly half, it doesn't just take a loss, it becomes the market. And every other treasury company, all 195 of them holding 1.24 to 4 million BTC between them will feel it at once. So if strategies MNAV stays meaningfully below 1x, the flywheel cannot restart full stop. If that 6 and a bit month cash runway shrinks without fresh capital, force selling to cover those STRC dividends becomes a lot more likely. In terms of price, $60,000 is widely cited as the existential line where capital markets effectively close for these firms. Galaxy's Alex Thorne even floats a panic scenario down at 40 to $46,000. Let's hope i …
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