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Graham Stephan on Politics — predictions scored

Graham Stephan on Politics — predictions scored

8 tracked claims · Accuracy: 100%

G
Graham Stephan 30.01.2026
Fulfilled
"Trump's entire plan could be broken down into 13 steps. One, Trump posts a cryptic message signaling tariffs on a specific country or sector. Two, Trump then announces a large new tariff that catches people off guard. Three, over the weekend, Trump doubles down while the markets are closed. Four, over that same weekend, other countries respond or double down on their claim. Five, on Sunday night, stock market futures open lower. Six, when the market opens, Trump applies even more pressure, causing stocks to fall even further. Seven, after another few days, investors begin to buy the dip and the stock market begins to recover. Eight, on the following weekend, Trump posts that discussions are underway and that he's working towards a resolution. Nine, that Sunday evening, stock market futures open even higher as optimism begins to increase. 10, the Trump administration then announces that a new agreement is in the works. 11. Over the next few weeks or months, more progress is made. 12. A trade deal or resolution is finally announced. "
🌐 Scenario Politics
G
Graham Stephan 20.01.2026
True
"On January 17th, Trump accused European allies of sending their troops to Greenland for purposes unknown. And in response to that, Trump announced a brand new phase tariff plan that would go into effect February 1st. "
✅ Factual claim Politics
G
Graham Stephan 20.01.2026
· Unverified
"The Danish Constitution does not allow the sale of a territory without a referendum from Greenland's people. So even if Denmark agrees to sell Greenland to the United States, the people of Greenland also have to agree with it. "
✅ Factual claim Politics
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
True
"The thing is, as of today, the markets are unsure of exactly what to expect. Like for the last year, Trump has repeatedly promised lower interest rates. He's openly criticized Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates faster and more aggressively. "
✅ Factual claim Politics
G
Graham Stephan 28.01.2026
Fulfilled
"Although, once Jerome Pel's term is up in May, that's where things are going to get very interesting. For example, Trump recently said that he wants a Fed chairman like Alan Greenspan in the 1990s. "
🔮 Forecast Politics 2026
G
Graham Stephan 20.01.2026
True
"As of now, Greenland is home to a major US defense installation with roughly 150 American troops stationed there. and it's considered a key early warning location for anything coming over the Arctic. "
✅ Factual claim Politics
G
Graham Stephan 08.01.2026
Fulfilled
"Second, even if they did ban institutional investors from buying single-family homes, it would need to be strict enough to prevent the circumvention of a company just creating shell organizations, putting the properties under those LLCs, and buying just enough not to trigger the limit. "
🌐 Scenario Politics
G
Graham Stephan 08.01.2026
Fulfilled
"First, Congress could face severe legal challenges trying to ban an entire investor class from owning properties. Sure, they could argue that they're preventing housing market distortions and trying to improve affordability, but it's not without a legal fight. "
🌐 Scenario Politics

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