Claims
905 claims · 01.01.1150 – 11.06.2026
Content language
"De la Spa wins. Salvadoran-style shock. Short-term strengthening of the PESO on a wave of right-wing investor enthusiasm and immediate risk of collision with the Supreme Court, Constitutional Tribunal, and Congress, i.e., political risk premium going up after the first attempts at extradition decrees. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Walensja wins. Center-right correction. Attempt to rebuild relations with Washington. Fiscal plan to be agreed with Congress. PESO may strengthen below 3500, and the Colcup index returns to an upward trend. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"There is a plan to unexpectedly attack Iran and pacify it. The plan is for a sudden, precise attack to neutralize and eliminate the entire command, the entire government of Iran. But this may not succeed. Iran will retaliate, and then there will be a huge attack on Iran. Wars will ignite, and this will lead to a crisis, including a large food crisis. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Armed conflicts
2026
"German economic growth in 2026 is half a percent, and Poland, according to forecasts, even 3.8%. This means that we are growing 6 to seven times faster than Europe's largest economy. "
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PL · original
✅ Factual claim
Economy
"And perfectly, perfectly on point here, this is happening, because this fourth quarter was already declining and the first quarter of 2026 confirms this trend. We have the second consecutive quarter of apartment price drops in these largest cities, and the bottom is predicted here by Tomek Narkun at the turn of 2029-2030. So now buying an apartment for rent is a very risky decision, because one must expect declines in these properties, and if I had to advise someone, I would tell them to wait a few years for possibly better apartment prices, to get a better return on investment, so that it wouldn't be at most 4% or 3% as it is currently in Warsaw, but for it to increase to 6-7% as it once was from renting. "
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PL · original
⚠️ Warning
Economy
2029
"An Italian city or Italian cities come to mind. Suddenly, very disturbing information will appear. Perhaps I am wrong about the country, but in some Italian city in Italy, disease outbreaks will suddenly appear that will spread very quickly. We will learn in a short time, one, in two days, that there are outbreaks of some infections among people somewhere, and within a short time, say a week or two, it will grow so much that the government will decide on some measures, a rapidly spreading virus. It seems to me that it will start in Italy. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Disasters
2026
Ad
"First short-term scenario. Trump and Xi agree on Iran. Beijing pressures Tehran. Iran yields on Hormuz. Tankers move. Brent falls to around $80, maybe lower. What does this mean in practice for Poland? Inflation loses momentum. Fuel at stations gets cheaper by several dozen groszy. Electricity bills stop being so scary, at least a bit. The National Bank of Poland gets an argument to maintain interest rates or even to cut them slightly. The zloty strengthens, WIG 20 catches its breath. General relief. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Demography plus misery equals export of people. 220 million Nigerians is not an abstract African problem. It's a question of what the migration map of Europe will look like in 5-10 years. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Society
2036
"It is not a question of whether Poland will enter the same scenario as Germany. Unfortunately, it is a question of when it will enter, whether in 2027 or 2028. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2027
"Top 5 2183% over 13 years, I repeat, as of the end of April this year 2026. For posterity, I will emphasize here that annually it is 27%. "
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PL · original
✅ Factual claim
Economy
"The global smartphone shipment forecast for 2026 will drop by 2%, and the average valuation will increase by almost 7%. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Home appliances (washing machine, refrigerator, dryer), because it's not just a chip. It's also a kilo of plastic in the casing, a kilo of rubber in the seals, a kilo of aluminum in the drum. Everything three times more expensive. Itoro experts in Polish financial media are already saying directly: Smartphones, laptops, consoles, refrigerators, washing machines, everything will get more expensive in the coming months. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"ASUS announced price increases for new computers by 25 to 30%. McQuery, an Australian investment bank, forecasts consumer electronics price increases of 10 to 20% in 2026. Numura more conservatively forecasts 5%. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"The third option, which markets are already pricing in, is a controlled devaluation with half-open eyes. That is, the loss of money value, pretending everything is under control, verbal interventions, selling foreign exchange reserves. Exactly as Great Britain did in 1992 before George Soros' famous attack on the pound. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio in January 2026 called Japan exactly such a demonstrative case of what happens to every country that allows debt to grow above its service capacity. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
Short timeframe
"And the second option is to return to bond buying and continue printing yen. It saves bonds but kills the currency. The yen is already at 160, and at 200 we have a scenario where imported inflation devours the remnants of real wages. Senior poverty increases geometrically. Another Akio in rice shops. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
Ad
"Annually, Japan could become insolvent at 2% rates. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Optimistic scenario. Trump makes a deal with Iran. Ormus returns to normal. Jet fuel drops to $120 per barrel in summer. Bydgoszcz regains Frankfurt in the fourth quarter, and the pessimistic scenario: war escalates, Russia continues to scheme. European reserves fall below 23 days. physical shortages at airports, rationing, ban on short-haul flights, and with this scenario, a full recession in the aviation industry. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"In short, we have two, three days for agreements or we return to a hot phase of war. Wednesday will be the day that will probably decide how the whole quarter, and maybe even the whole year, will look. For the markets, and for us, it would be better if they reached an agreement. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Armed conflicts
2026
"The direction of the flow of people, work, and capital between Poland and Germany is slowly starting to reverse, point-by-point. First in asparagus fields, then in care, then in construction, and in a few years perhaps in office jobs, in IT in medical specializations, because once a trend starts, it rarely stops at one industry. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
Long timeframe
"And now everything depends on two things. On the outcome of these talks. If some agreement is signed. Well, then it will probably last until the elections, because then the circus will start again. I am deeply convinced that after November, it will all come back again. Uh, that, uh, first of all, that's the first condition for the bull market to last, and the second condition is the results that will be reported, I'm looking at the calendar, between April 22nd and 29th, by the Magnificent Seven companies and not only them. There's also IBM. I think IBM and Tesla are on the 22nd. Intel on the 23rd. Well, various ones. I think three Magnificent Seven companies report on the 29th. Nvidia only sometime at the end of May. Therefore, we are waiting, and depending on what we see there, actually what the management forecasts will be after the reports are published, then in conjunction with this de-escalation, we can see a bull market, a continuation of the bull market. If something slips, or there is no de-escalation, or worse, the forecasts are unsatisfactory, they will certainly be good, but maybe unsatisfactory, then we will return to a correctional arrangement. How it will be, I cannot decide at the moment, because I don't know what the companies will say and I definitely don't know what Mr. Trump will come up with in the meantime. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy