The practical markup window closes in mid-May. The recess begins on the 25th and...

…f May ultimatum and Cynthia Lummis has warned that missing the Memorial Day window could push the next workable alignment of House, Senate, and White House out as far as 2030. Now, you might assume that a bill with this much bipartisan support and this much industry pressure simply cannot fail. However, that assumption ignores the Senate calendar. The practical markup window closes in mid-May. The recess begins on the 25th and after that, the midterm cycle starts swallowing every available legislative day. If the Clarity Act dies in this window, then comprehensive market structure legislation pushes deep into 2027 or beyond and the industry returns to regulation by enforcement. Furthermore, sitting directly on top of that legislative cliff is the Fed chair conversation with Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing reshaping monetary policy expectations heading into the summer. A more hawkish than expected confirmation tone is bearish for risk assets including Bitcoin while a dovish surprise is the opposite and either way, the…