📅 05.06.2026 · Everyone Is Quietly Selling Bitcoin… What Went Wrong? · 👁️ 1
"Scenario number two, a 20% CAGR. This is the respectable uninspiring scenario where for me it would probably still make sense to check out to be honest. By 2040, Bitcoin hits roughly $900,000 per coin."
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Login…historically done dramatically better than that by 50 to 60% better with a fraction of the volatility. Now, if this is where Bitcoin ends up, the risk-reward case collapses entirely for Bitcoin. You can still believe in Bitcoin. You can still own some Bitcoin, but having it as a majority of your portfolio sounds like crazy talk in that situation. Scenario number two, a 20% CAGR. This is the respectable uninspiring scenario where for me it would probably still make sense to check out to be honest. By 2040, Bitcoin hits roughly $900,000 per coin. It's fantastic. Almost a million bucks. A 12.8 X return on today's prices. It's genuinely good except you're still only marginally outperforming what aggressive equity investors have historically achieved just by holding the [ __ ] NASDAQ. And you're doing it with far more pain along the way. Scenario three, this is where things get interesting. T…