Skip to content
Verdiktum
Igor Janke
Igor Janke
Claim author · 23.06.2026 · Polska przesypia czas wojny? BUDZISZ o błę...
Pending
Forecast Armed Conflicts 31.12.2027

Russia: destabilization, not major conflict

"Russia will influence the situation in Europe. I believe that this does not have to, and we should not even think in these terms, take the form of a threat of some large military conflict. Rather, I would expect attempts to destabilize the situation here, meaning active measures below the threshold of Article Five. Unfortunately, I am a pessimist in this regard." "Rosja będzie oddziaływała na sytuację w Europie. Ja uważam, że to nie nie musi i nawet nie powinniśmy w tych kategoriach myśleć, przyjąć formę zagrożenia jakiegoś dużego konfliktu wojskowego. Raczej spodziewałbym się tutaj prób destabilizacji sytuacji, czyli tych działań aktywnych poniżej progu artykułu piątego. Tu bym był niestety, tu jestem pesymistą w tym zakresie."

(Machine-translated) · original in Polish

ℹ️ In shortIgor Janke predicts Russia will destabilize Europe with actions below the threshold of open armed conflict, rather than pursuing a major war.

1 0
Verification Analysis generated with AI Pro

This prediction is awaiting verification.

Details

For informational purposes only. Not investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Full disclaimer

AI is analyzing your argument…
Source (proof) Plays from the quoted moment
Transcript excerpt Polski

rocesem, jest bardzo znaczącym kosztem tego, kto Rosję osłabia, czyli w tym wypadku państwa ukraińskiego. A w związku z tym nie można zakładać, a myślę, że tak automatycznie wielu zakłada, że to jest w gruncie rzeczy bez znaczenia czy wojna trwała jeszcze rok, będzie trwała czy najbliższe 10 lat, a może nawet lepiej, jeśli będzie trwała 10 lat, bo Rosja będzie bardziej osłabiona. Tylko może przyjść taki moment. Ja nie twierdzę, że on przyjdzie w najbliższym półroczu, kiedy państwo ukraińskie będzie będzie już tak osłabione w sensie zasobów choćby demograficznych, nie mówię tu o pieniądzach, że już nie będzie w stanie, nie będzie w stanie prowadzić skutecznego oporu, to tego bym nie nie tracił sprzed oczu, bo taka ewentualność zawsze istnieje. Warto pamiętać, że dzisiaj Ukraina ponosi większe straty niż Federacja Rosyjska. Straty w ludziach przede wszystkim, nie w liczbach bezwzględnych, bo w liczbach bezwzględnych oczywiście większa liczba zabitych i rannych jest po stronie rosyjskiej. To jest jasne i nie ulega wątpliwości, ale w relacji do wielkości pot

Comments

No comments yet. Be the first!

Sign in to leave a comment.

Related claims by Igor Janke

Igor Janke Igor Janke 05.06.2026
Pending

China's Five-Year Plan: Tech Independence

"Now we have to look at the next five-year plan, which was announced in China in March, and there are concepts that already tell us what kind of China it might be, primarily technologically independent, one that will regulate access to technology, components, rare earth metals, and will take from abroad what it needs, and what it wants to give abroad it will ration. Let's imagine, or let's imagine, that if there's only 0.1% of the composition of these rare earth metals, it must obtain a certificate or simply an attestation that it can go outside. And so, China itself is to be independent and will also ration. It will be, that's how it is, who will even be able to produce cars, in which, as we've already said here, the Chinese are already achieving this. What else is there? There's robotics, there's artificial intelligence, there's green energy and a green economy, and by 2030, 12% of the economy is to be produced by robots with AI algorithms, because there will be a move away from human labor, because there are demographic problems, so a completely new society based on technology is being created, with China at the forefront of this process. "

China's new five-year plan aims for technological independence, regulating access to technology and raw materials, developing robotics, AI, and a green economy, striving for a technology-based society.

translated PL · original
Forecast Technology 31.12.2030
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.06.2026
? Unverifiable

Decline in Marriages Before Thirty

"I found other data and compared how it looked in 2019, just before the pandemic, lockdown, and so on. And it turned out that the percentage of people under 29 or 30 years old in a marital relationship dropped by half over these six years. "

The percentage of people under 30 in a marital relationship has halved in the six years since 2019, just before the pandemic.

translated PL · original
Forecast Society 31.12.2031
Igor Janke Igor Janke 01.05.2026
Occurred

Russian hybrid warfare in Poland

"If a Ukrainian carries out an attack here in Poland, what will that cause? A wave of hatred and everything against Ukraine. Who is supposed to carry out these attacks? Russians, dear sirs, open your eyes a bit and understand the scheme of hybrid warfare and what is happening. We won't catch an FSB officer here who will carry out any attack, but they will do it with the hands of people who are already here, stupid Ukrainians or stupid Poles, who for a few zlotys stick Wagner group stickers in Warsaw or cause some acts of sabotage. "

Russians may use Ukrainians or Poles to carry out attacks in Poland to incite hatred against Ukraine, which is an element of hybrid warfare.

translated PL · original
Warning Armed Conflicts 31.12.2027
Igor Janke Igor Janke 13.05.2026
Occurred

Consequences of crypto ban in Poland

"For example, the de facto liquidation of the legal crypto market in Poland. possible outflow of tech companies abroad, potential conflict with EU regulation, which assumes market regulation, not its ban. And the strengthening of UOKiK and ABW competencies in financial and internet blockades, meaning we are also entering the scope of some blocking of internet freedom. "

The proposed bill banning cryptocurrencies in Poland could lead to the liquidation of the legal crypto market, the outflow of tech companies, and conflict with EU regulations, as well as strengthen the powers of UOKiK and ABW in financial and internet blocking.

translated PL · original
Warning Economy 31.12.2026