Skip to content
Verdiktum

Of course, if this conflict, according to my baseline scenario, the war in the M...

Albert Rokicki: "Of course, if this conflict, according to my baseline scenario, the war in the Middle East is ended, say, within a month, or at most two, ri..." — Pending

A

📅 11.03.2026 · Czy wojna z Iranem może zagrozić wielkiej hossie? · 👁️ 30

Pending. Albert Rokicki's claim was conditional: if the conflict in the Middle East ended within one to two months from March 11, 2026, oil prices should collapse. By May 11, 2026 (two months from the statement date), the conflic...

"Of course, if this conflict, according to my baseline scenario, the war in the Middle East is ended, say, within a month, or at most two, right? Then oil should collapse, because Iranian oil will return, there's still oversupply, and there are also the reserves that the United States has, so I would be calm here, right?" "Oczywiście, no jeżeli ten konflikt, no zgodnie z moim scenariuszem bazowym, wojna na Bliskim Wschodzie zostanie zakończona, jednak w przeciągu miesiąca, powiedzmy, no góra dwóch, tak? No to ropa powinna się zawalić, no bo wróci ta ropa irańska, jest nadpodaż jeszcze te rezerwy przecież są ewentualnie, które Stany Zjednoczone mają, także to tutaj bym był spokojny, prawda?"
🌐 (Machine-translated — original in Polish) · Original in Polishuage
🌐 Scenario ⚔️ Armed conflicts AI confidence (unresolved): 90% Resolves by: 11 May 2026 🌐 jeżeli ten konflikt, no zgodnie z moim scenariuszem bazowym,... Assertiveness: high Source on YouTube

Source (proof)

Plays from the quoted moment

Verification

Analysis generated with AI Pro
Available in the Pro plan Full AI analysis, sources, counterarguments Unlock Pro
🤖
AI-generated analysis: This result is an assessment by a language model, not an expert opinion or a legally binding verdict. Verify sources before making any decisions. Model: gemini-2.5-flash

For informational purposes only. Not investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Full disclaimer

AI is analyzing your argument…

Community Arguments (AI Feedback)

Log in to use this feature

Login

Transcript excerpt

Oryginał w języku Polskim Open on YouTube

ką promocję, no klasyczna promocja na Polskę była, na polskie obligacje, na polską walutę, na akcje. Także to po prostu na chwilę jeszcze taki podskok i uważam, że będziemy dążyli do o wiele niższych poziomów, bo inflacja jest w celu 2,5% praktycznie 2,9 praktycznie w celu, można powiedzieć bez apteki. Także stopy powinny być dalej dalej obniżane. Oczywiście, no jeżeli ten konflikt, no zgodnie z moim scenariuszem bazowym, wojna na Bliskim Wschodzie zostanie zakończona, jednak w przeciągu miesiąca, powiedzmy, no góra dwóch, tak? No to ropa powinna się zawalić, no bo wróci ta ropa irańska, jest nadpodaż jeszcze te rezerwy przecież są ewentualnie, które Stany Zjednoczone mają, także to tutaj bym był spokojny, prawda? Najważniejsze, słuchajcie, jak się patr patrzy się na taśmę, to można mieć jakieś głupie myśli. Tak, taśma to tak slangu, to jest notowania są, prawda? To jest arkusz zleceń. Nie patrzcie na to. Słuchajcie, w takich przypadkach paniki przypomnijcie sobie o fundamentach polskiej gospodarki i polskich spółek poszczególnych. Tak, fundamenty się nie z

Comments

No comments yet. Be the first!

Sign in to leave a comment.

Related claims by Albert Rokicki

Albert Rokicki Albert Rokicki 11.03.2026
Pending
"This great generational bull market will last somewhere until the mid-2040s, meaning we still have about 20 years of very strong growth in the Polish market. We will catch up to Western countries, we will catch up to France, Germany, Great Britain, and later also the United States in the development of the capital market in particular. "
translated PL · original
🔮 Forecast Economy 2045
Albert Rokicki Albert Rokicki 06.01.2026
Pending
"I believe that Creotech could be half of ISA within one or two years, meaning I wouldn't be surprised by a capitalization of even 5 billion zlotys for the space part itself, because I believe there is a lot of skepticism. "
translated PL · original
💰 Price target Economy 2028
Albert Rokicki Albert Rokicki 31.03.2026
~ Partially
"in 20 years, I estimate, around 2045, 2050, perhaps we will start to feel debt problems, and then these new leaders will show such wonders that we will now feel inferior, right? Because some artificial intelligence, some flights to the Moon, to Mars they will be doing, and we will be learning from them. So everyone has their 5 minutes. Poland has its 5 minutes now. For the next two decades, we will dominate, we will outpace, we will chase Germany and France, and we have already overtaken Spain, as we know. It was recently in the media that in terms of GDP per capita, we have already swallowed the Spaniards. "
translated PL · original
🔮 Forecast Economy 2045
Albert Rokicki Albert Rokicki 03.03.2026
Pending
"I believe this war will end soon. I am from such an optimist camp. Well, let's be honest, Iran does not have the ability to continue or will surrender, and this regime will want to cooperate, even tactically, diplomatically end the war, claiming it wants to get rid of its further nuclear program, continuation of the nuclear program. Something like that. Or it will be totally annihilated, right? And here these ballistic capabilities or Trump will simply withdraw. If he sees that oil has actually exceeded $80, he will withdraw under some pretext, stating that the goals have been achieved, and the old song, the so-called taco. Well, it is known that he promised cheap fuel in the United States. He might be afraid, right, that these rising commodity prices could break the consumer and lead America into recession, because oil shocks practically have 100% effectiveness. If oil rose well above $100, $110, $120, I would be convinced that America would enter some mild recession. Mild, but still, right? And the American stock market in a bear market, meaning a drop of at least 20%. "
translated PL · original
🔮 Forecast Armed Conflicts 2027