Comparic Rynki 23.04.2026

~ Partially

"Optimistic scenario. Trump makes a deal with Iran. Ormus returns to normal. Jet fuel drops to $120 per barrel in summer. Bydgoszcz regains Frankfurt in the fourth quarter, and the pessimistic scenario: war escalates, Russia continues to scheme. European reserves fall below 23 days. physical shortages at airports, rationing, ban on short-haul flights, and with this scenario, a full recession in the aviation industry. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Albert Rokicki 22.04.2026

◔ Pending

"I expect that in this quarter, which is the second quarter of 2026, at least one large contract will be announced. This is my base scenario, which I am playing on. Yes. And it could even be a contract for "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2026

Albert Rokicki 22.04.2026

◔ Pending

"I expect that in this quarter, which is the second quarter of 2026, at least one large contract will be announced. This is my base scenario, which I'm playing for. Yes. And it could even be a contract for 6 million dollars, which will make the company profitable, just like Creotech became profitable and there was a huge pump for it, right? for very good overall results for 2025, where there was a profit of 20 million from continuing operations, meaning it didn't even include Creotech Quantum. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2026

Comparic Rynki 20.04.2026

✗ Failed

"In short, we have two, three days for agreements or we return to a hot phase of war. Wednesday will be the day that will probably decide how the whole quarter, and maybe even the whole year, will look. For the markets, and for us, it would be better if they reached an agreement. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Armed conflicts 2026

Comparic Rynki 20.04.2026

◔ Pending

"And the third BigTech is getting hit blow after blow in the European Union. Apple, Samsung, Google, battery regulations are just the beginning. The erosion of margins in the European market will be counted in billions, but it will not topple these companies. Rather, it will shift valuations down by a few percent over the next two quarters. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2026

Comparic Rynki 17.04.2026

✗ Negated

"And now everything depends on two things. On the outcome of these talks. If some agreement is signed. Well, then it will probably last until the elections, because then the circus will start again. I am deeply convinced that after November, it will all come back again. Uh, that, uh, first of all, that's the first condition for the bull market to last, and the second condition is the results that will be reported, I'm looking at the calendar, between April 22nd and 29th, by the Magnificent Seven companies and not only them. There's also IBM. I think IBM and Tesla are on the 22nd. Intel on the 23rd. Well, various ones. I think three Magnificent Seven companies report on the 29th. Nvidia only sometime at the end of May. Therefore, we are waiting, and depending on what we see there, actually what the management forecasts will be after the reports are published, then in conjunction with this de-escalation, we can see a bull market, a continuation of the bull market. If something slips, or there is no de-escalation, or worse, the forecasts are unsatisfactory, they will certainly be good, but maybe unsatisfactory, then we will return to a correctional arrangement. How it will be, I cannot decide at the moment, because I don't know what the companies will say and I definitely don't know what Mr. Trump will come up with in the meantime. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 10.04.2026

◔ Pending

"If the conflict ends now, inflation will not be higher. It will stay at that level. If, however, it continues and oil prices actually rise to $140, $150 or so, I'm not aiming for quotability so I won't mention levels, then of course inflation will rise and may reach 4%. This is completely realistic. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 06.04.2026

! Misleading

"The government lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1%. The Bundesbank is even more pessimistic, seeing only 0.6%. The Ifo Institute puts it at 0.8. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

✅ Factual claim Economy

Comparic Rynki 03.04.2026

✓ Fulfilled

"The federal deficit in 2026 is projected to be another 1.9 trillion and grow to 3.1 trillion in 2036. In this context, the pressure on the Fed to cut rates and make long-term debt is neither a coincidence nor a whim. It's mathematics. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2026

Comparic Rynki 02.04.2026

✓ Occurred

"According to BCA Research, the world is now losing 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day. This is about 5% of global supply. But beware, BCA analyst Mark Papik warns that by mid-April this number will double. Why? Because strategic reserves will run out, sanction-exempt Russian and Iranian oil will run out, and Gulf producers had to shut down wells because they have nowhere to store what they cannot ship. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

⚠️ Warning Economy 2026

Comparic Rynki 02.04.2026

~ Partially

"Goldman Sachs raised forecasts. Prices averaged $110 in March and April with a risk of significantly higher. If Hormuz remains closed for 10 weeks, prices could beat the 2008 record of $147 per barrel. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 31.03.2026

✓ Occurred

"Analysts warn that if Ormus is not opened by mid-April, losses will double from 5 to 10 million barrels per day. This would be equivalent to a complete market shutdown during the COVID-19 pandemic. Only without lockdowns. A purely supply shock. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

⚠️ Warning Economy 2026

Albert Rokicki 31.03.2026

✓ Fulfilled

"And imagine that soon, more or less almost at the same time as this company is spun off from Creotech Creotech Quantum, a quantum competitor in Finland will debut and will also have a dual listing in New York, in the United States, and note, at a valuation of 1.8 billion dollars. Although they have 35 million dollars in revenue. But Creotech Quantum has about 3 million in revenue, and plans to have 100 million zlotys in annual revenue, right? So 100 million zlotys annually, that would already be about 27 million dollars annually, not much less than this Finnish competitor. I wrote about this on Twitter, which is valued at 1.8 billion dollars, so even from such a proportion, this quantum company should be valued at 500, 600 million. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Technology 2026

Comparic Rynki 31.03.2026

~ Partially

"Bloomberg models a scenario in which oil reaches $170 per barrel, and then we have full stagflation in the Eurozone, which is the worst thing that can actually happen in the economy. Inflation up by 2 percentage points, GDP down by 1.2. And the Revolutionary Guard openly threatens that the price will reach $200. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 31.03.2026

◔ Pending

"Aluminum jumped to over $3500/ton, highest in four years. Analysts from CRU Group warn that with further conflict, the price could reach $4000. And restarting a closed aluminum smelter is not a matter of weeks, it's 3 to 12 months. Such installations operate at temperatures above 960 degrees Celsius. You don't just turn them on and off like a stereo. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

⚠️ Warning Economy 2026

Krzysztof Jackowski 28.03.2026

◔ Pending

"If the war in Iran does not calm down, we must realize that from about July, the crisis will begin to enter a very acute stage. In Europe, there will start to be problems with many things we buy, from energy, from fuels to products and food. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2026

Comparic Rynki 27.03.2026

✗ Failed

"He will take over Cuba and that's it. Cuba is really in such a ruined state right now that, in my opinion, before November we will see Trump's triumphant entry into Havana. And the dream of socialist Cuba will end. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Politics 2026

Albert Rokicki 03.03.2026

✗ Failed

"I believe this war will end soon. I am from such an optimist camp. Well, let's be honest, Iran does not have the ability to continue or will surrender, and this regime will want to cooperate, even tactically, diplomatically end the war, claiming it wants to get rid of its further nuclear program, continuation of the nuclear program. Something like that. Or it will be totally annihilated, right? And here these ballistic capabilities or Trump will simply withdraw. If he sees that oil has actually exceeded $80, he will withdraw under some pretext, stating that the goals have been achieved, and the old song, the so-called taco. Well, it is known that he promised cheap fuel in the United States. He might be afraid, right, that these rising commodity prices could break the consumer and lead America into recession, because oil shocks practically have 100% effectiveness. If oil rose well above $100, $110, $120, I would be convinced that America would enter some mild recession. Mild, but still, right? And the American stock market in a bear market, meaning a drop of at least 20%. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Armed conflicts 2026

Krzysztof Jackowski 02.03.2026

✗ Failed

"The Third World War will happen in 2026. I have a feeling that in February, March 2026, other warlike things will happen in the world, but the world war will seriously begin in February, March 2026. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Armed conflicts 2026

Krzysztof Jackowski 02.03.2026

✗ Failed

"World War Three will happen in 2026. I have this feeling of February, February, March 2026. Other things will happen in the world, also warlike, but World War Three, seriously, will start in February, March 2026. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Armed conflicts 2026