Comparic Rynki 31.05.2026

✓ Fulfilled

"Let's consider a family commuting daily. 60 km a day. They consume about 1200 liters of fuel annually. We add ETS2 and it comes out to 400 zlotys more just for the tax itself. Plus an increase in prices of all goods, because professional transport will also obviously have to pay, because trucks will pay, because the entire supply chain pays, and then all of that lands in the price of bread, milk, shoes. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2028

Comparic Rynki 31.05.2026

~ Partially

"In the base scenario, petrol prices increase by 29 groszy per liter, diesel by 35 groszy. In the pessimistic scenario, based on real Bloomberg forecasts, the amounts rise to 46 groszy and 50 groszy respectively. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy Medium timeframe

Comparic Rynki 31.05.2026

✓ True

"Bloomberg calculated that in the years 2027-2035, the EU ETS2 system will generate revenues of approximately 644 billion euros. The entire Social Climate Fund (SFK) is 65 billion euros, meaning SFK is slightly over 10% of what ETS2 will take from citizens' wallets. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

✅ Factual claim Economy

Comparic Rynki 31.05.2026

✓ Fulfilled

"a typical Polish family can lose up to PLN 40,000 in 7 years. without a separate item in PIT, without a referendum, without a choice. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2033

Comparic Rynki 31.05.2026

◔ Pending

"The Centre for Climate and Energy Analysis went further. It assumes that after the merger of ETS1 and ETS2 systems, the price may reach €180 per tonne in 2040. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

💰 Price target Economy 2040

Comparic Rynki 31.05.2026

◔ Pending

"The average Polish family heating their home with gas will additionally lose 6338 PLN in the years 2028-2030. By 2035, this will already be 2418 PLN. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2035

Comparic Rynki 29.05.2026

◔ Pending

"In 2027, something must break. Either consolidation forced by Brussels, or a series of quiet tax increases, or an increase in debt servicing costs that will consume the rest of the government's economic policy. Most likely a bit of everything. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2027

Comparic Rynki 29.05.2026

✓ Fulfilled

"The European Commission must see this in its models, which is why it forecasts a deficit of over 6% for next year instead of lowering it. Because in Brussels they understand what the Polish government communicatively does not want to say. Revenues will not catch up with our expenses at all. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2027

Comparic Rynki 29.05.2026

! Misleading

"Poland will spend nearly 200 billion zlotys on defense in 2026. This is over 4% of GDP. And it will be the second-highest indicator in all of NATO, right after the United States. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

✅ Factual claim Economy

Comparic Rynki 29.05.2026

~ Partially

"Interest next year will consume not 115 but 130, 140 billion zlotys. There will be nothing left to pay for benefits, defense, or investments without deep changes. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 29.05.2026

◔ Pending

"64.5%. This will be our public debt to GDP in 2026. The treaty threshold is 60%. And we are exceeding it this year for the first time. According to European Commission forecasts, in 2027 the debt will reach over 68%. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2026

Comparic Rynki 28.05.2026

✓ Fulfilled

"The Korean army needs over 200,000 recruits annually to maintain the defense line at the 38th parallel. Meanwhile, forecasts say that by 2040, the number of 20-year-olds will drop to approximately 130,000. There is a shortage of over 70,000 soldiers annually. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Society 2040

Albert Rokicki 27.05.2026

◔ Pending

"Musk will want to strive to combine his two technological giants, meaning he wants to merge Tesla with SpaceX, and then the valuation will be 3 to 3.5 trillion dollars, and it will already be the fourth largest company in the world. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy Medium timeframe

Albert Rokicki 27.05.2026

~ Partially

"SpaceX will practically immediately and automatically enter these key indexes, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 as well, I believe. Also, ETFs will not so much want to, but will have to buy these shares. So, such passive demand will appear immediately. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2026

Comparic Rynki 23.05.2026

◔ Pending

"Kaped wins in the second round. Continuation of Petro's policies, continuation of conflict with the central bank, continuation of sanctions. The PESO weakens towards 4200-4500 per dollar in a few months. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 23.05.2026

? Unverifiable

"De la Spa wins. Salvadoran-style shock. Short-term strengthening of the PESO on a wave of right-wing investor enthusiasm and immediate risk of collision with the Supreme Court, Constitutional Tribunal, and Congress, i.e., political risk premium going up after the first attempts at extradition decrees. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 23.05.2026

✗ Negated

"Walensja wins. Center-right correction. Attempt to rebuild relations with Washington. Fiscal plan to be agreed with Congress. PESO may strengthen below 3500, and the Colcup index returns to an upward trend. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Krzysztof Jackowski 22.05.2026

~ Partially

"There is a plan to unexpectedly attack Iran and pacify it. The plan is for a sudden, precise attack to neutralize and eliminate the entire command, the entire government of Iran. But this may not succeed. Iran will retaliate, and then there will be a huge attack on Iran. Wars will ignite, and this will lead to a crisis, including a large food crisis. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Armed conflicts 2026

Comparic Rynki 22.05.2026

◔ Pending

"If an agreement between Iran and the United States is already concluded, the price of oil will drop from nearly $100 to $70-$80, because I think it won't go much below $70, as it will take time before production capacities in the Persian Gulf are reactivated and everything settles down again. And if oil cheapens, in other words, if oil significantly cheapens, say by 20%, what will happen to yields? They will undoubtedly fall. But how much will they fall? Will they not start rising again afterwards? Will the fear currently caused by debt, oil, and inflation not persist? I don't know, because I see many texts that say that not only oil matters here, because that's the truth, not only oil matters here, that generally elevated inflation may stay with us for a longer time. I'm not sure that will be the case. I simply don't know. And I'm waiting for the moment when we have a test. A test, meaning an oil price 20% lower, yields sharply falling, and what will happen then? Because the first move will be what Americans call a knee-jerk reaction, right, that the first move will be such a sharp drop in oil price, a sharp... "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 18.05.2026

◔ Pending

"By '29 we will see at least one UK Prime Minister, and maybe even two. We will see more marches and we will probably see UK bond yields above 6%. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Politics 2029