Comparic Rynki 01.06.2026

◔ Pending

"If China lifts the suspension of the ban in November 2026, RTX may have a serious problem fulfilling contracts worth over $20 billion that it has in its order book. "

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🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 23.05.2026

◔ Pending

"Kaped wins in the second round. Continuation of Petro's policies, continuation of conflict with the central bank, continuation of sanctions. The PESO weakens towards 4200-4500 per dollar in a few months. "

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🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 14.05.2026

◔ Pending

"The next key date is June 15 and 16, 2026. Bank of Japan meeting. If the BOJ raises the rate to a round 1% and markets price this with a probability of over 63%, a second wave will be triggered. Then we will see how much the Polish 10-year bond is really worth. "

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🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 23.04.2026

~ Partially

"Optimistic scenario. Trump makes a deal with Iran. Ormus returns to normal. Jet fuel drops to $120 per barrel in summer. Bydgoszcz regains Frankfurt in the fourth quarter, and the pessimistic scenario: war escalates, Russia continues to scheme. European reserves fall below 23 days. physical shortages at airports, rationing, ban on short-haul flights, and with this scenario, a full recession in the aviation industry. "

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🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 17.04.2026

✗ Negated

"And now everything depends on two things. On the outcome of these talks. If some agreement is signed. Well, then it will probably last until the elections, because then the circus will start again. I am deeply convinced that after November, it will all come back again. Uh, that, uh, first of all, that's the first condition for the bull market to last, and the second condition is the results that will be reported, I'm looking at the calendar, between April 22nd and 29th, by the Magnificent Seven companies and not only them. There's also IBM. I think IBM and Tesla are on the 22nd. Intel on the 23rd. Well, various ones. I think three Magnificent Seven companies report on the 29th. Nvidia only sometime at the end of May. Therefore, we are waiting, and depending on what we see there, actually what the management forecasts will be after the reports are published, then in conjunction with this de-escalation, we can see a bull market, a continuation of the bull market. If something slips, or there is no de-escalation, or worse, the forecasts are unsatisfactory, they will certainly be good, but maybe unsatisfactory, then we will return to a correctional arrangement. How it will be, I cannot decide at the moment, because I don't know what the companies will say and I definitely don't know what Mr. Trump will come up with in the meantime. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 10.04.2026

◔ Pending

"If the conflict ends now, inflation will not be higher. It will stay at that level. If, however, it continues and oil prices actually rise to $140, $150 or so, I'm not aiming for quotability so I won't mention levels, then of course inflation will rise and may reach 4%. This is completely realistic. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 02.04.2026

~ Partially

"Goldman Sachs raised forecasts. Prices averaged $110 in March and April with a risk of significantly higher. If Hormuz remains closed for 10 weeks, prices could beat the 2008 record of $147 per barrel. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 31.03.2026

~ Partially

"Bloomberg models a scenario in which oil reaches $170 per barrel, and then we have full stagflation in the Eurozone, which is the worst thing that can actually happen in the economy. Inflation up by 2 percentage points, GDP down by 1.2. And the Revolutionary Guard openly threatens that the price will reach $200. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Albert Rokicki 22.04.2026

◔ Pending

"And then from November, in my baseline scenario, a return to strong growth. It will already be known who won. Most likely the Democrats, only the question is whether they will only take over the House of Representatives, which is almost certain and is fully priced in, because there is an 85% chance of that on Polymarket, or whether they will also take over the Senate. There is 52% right now on Polymarket, on such a forbidden betting platform in Poland, where you can place bets with real money. "

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🌐 Scenario Politics

Albert Rokicki 01.04.2026

~ Partially

"there will be such a hype for these space companies and unfortunately, unfortunately I would prefer it to succeed, yes, but I'm afraid there will be huge disappointment after the debut, there will be distribution, there will be drops in SpaceX that will drag the entire industry down. So until June we can nicely play, for example, Kreotech Scanway, these Polish entities, but I think from July, somewhere from the holidays, there will be a dump in the space sector. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Technology

Albert Rokicki 11.03.2026

✗ Negated

"If 23,000 points fall, then the index will most likely go to 20,400 and possibly 18,800 as a panic low after the introduction of Trump's tariffs. So it doesn't look good for the German index, but for now, it must be admitted, one cannot panic. Here, this barrier needs to be lowered. Now, the natural and, I would even say, very strong resistance, I would be surprised if it fell, is 23,000 points, because it is also the peak before the tariff dump. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Albert Rokicki 29.01.2026

~ Partially

"Yes, and there might be a mini black swan in the United States, which paradoxically might help Europe and the Polish market, because capital will rotate even more, it will flee from America to Europe, to emerging markets, and to Poland. And we will benefit from this. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 08.04.2026

✗ Negated

"If oil falls for longer, inflation will slow down, and the Fed may return to cutting rates, which in turn will support precious metals. "

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🌐 Scenario Economy

Albert Rokicki 03.03.2026

? Unverifiable

"If oil significantly breaks above 80, are you planning a reduction? Yes, I would then consider a reduction if my proprietary indicator of probability of increases is currently in the neutral zone. If it enters the defensive zone, then it suggests reducing the portfolio to have cash for potential market opportunities. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Albert Rokicki 11.04.2026

~ Partially

"And also an interesting fact, that Archer, I don't know if it will make it, but it has signed an exclusivity agreement for the transport of participants of the FIFA World Cup. Imagine that. But since we're talking about the second half of the year here, it might unfortunately not make it, right? Perhaps only some demonstration, test flights, but it won't be massive, right? "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Technology