Claims
15 claims · 01.01.1150 – 11.06.2026
Content language
"Firstly, foreign capital is flowing into Poland like never before, because we are the cheapest gateway to the reconstruction of Ukraine. Plus 30-50% on the largest companies. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"If you have a business that requires selling a physical product to the States, Bahrain is a great idea. But from my side, the information is simple. When the war is over. And 'after the war' does not mean some message from an Iranian army colonel again, it does not mean a message from Trump. For me, the phrase 'after the war' means when I open marine traffic, which is a map that shows ship movements. I only select the red color, meaning only tankers, ga "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"If China lifts the suspension of the ban in November 2026, RTX may have a serious problem fulfilling contracts worth over $20 billion that it has in its order book. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Kaped wins in the second round. Continuation of Petro's policies, continuation of conflict with the central bank, continuation of sanctions. The PESO weakens towards 4200-4500 per dollar in a few months. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"If an agreement between Iran and the United States is already concluded, the price of oil will drop from nearly $100 to $70-$80, because I think it won't go much below $70, as it will take time before production capacities in the Persian Gulf are reactivated and everything settles down again. And if oil cheapens, in other words, if oil significantly cheapens, say by 20%, what will happen to yields? They will undoubtedly fall. But how much will they fall? Will they not start rising again afterwards? Will the fear currently caused by debt, oil, and inflation not persist? I don't know, because I see many texts that say that not only oil matters here, because that's the truth, not only oil matters here, that generally elevated inflation may stay with us for a longer time. I'm not sure that will be the case. I simply don't know. And I'm waiting for the moment when we have a test. A test, meaning an oil price 20% lower, yields sharply falling, and what will happen then? Because the first move will be what Americans call a knee-jerk reaction, right, that the first move will be such a sharp drop in oil price, a sharp... "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"The next key date is June 15 and 16, 2026. Bank of Japan meeting. If the BOJ raises the rate to a round 1% and markets price this with a probability of over 63%, a second wave will be triggered. Then we will see how much the Polish 10-year bond is really worth. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
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"Analysts estimate that if Vero captures at least 20% of European transactions by 2030, it will push 1.5 trillion euro annually out of US payment pipelines. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"If the conflict ends now, inflation will not be higher. It will stay at that level. If, however, it continues and oil prices actually rise to $140, $150 or so, I'm not aiming for quotability so I won't mention levels, then of course inflation will rise and may reach 4%. This is completely realistic. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"If Ormus remains blocked for more than a month and Goldman's scenario materializes, then pressure on the Polish transport industry will return with full force. And when pressure returns to TSL, retail chain margins begin to fall, and then there's no need to explain it. We all see it on our receipts. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"All the time my scenario, my game is based on the unchanging, unchanging assumption that information about signing an enterprise agreement even for 6 million dollars will be released, which will make this company profitable overnight, it may become profitable because of it. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"If the Emirates indeed start pumping at full capacity to their target of 5 million barrels per day, it means more oil on the market, which theoretically leads to lower prices. However, everything depends on when Ormus opens, because today even the Emirates have problems with exports. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"And then from November, in my baseline scenario, a return to strong growth. It will already be known who won. Most likely the Democrats, only the question is whether they will only take over the House of Representatives, which is almost certain and is fully priced in, because there is an 85% chance of that on Polymarket, or whether they will also take over the Senate. There is 52% right now on Polymarket, on such a forbidden betting platform in Poland, where you can place bets with real money. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Politics
"Venezuela is the same. Many other places on the map of Africa, on the map of South America. If these changes are carried out to the end, it could be great news. And for us, a brilliant place to live. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Society
"However, in my opinion, this direction starts to make sense at the moment when we have this conflict somehow closed or suspended. Rather permanently. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"If Iran falls, Trump will taste victory and think he can do anything. And that means Venezuela, Cuba, then in a sense Russia, then China are currently playing for survival, not for victory. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Politics
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